| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
San Marcos High School | Taylor Escola '27 | 35 |
| 2 |  |
Corona del Mar High School | Siena Nichols '27 | 41 |
| 3 | |
Corona del Mar High School | Maddie Nichols '27 | 43 |
| 4 | |
Corona del Mar High School | Paloma Arrigo '26 | 50 |
| 5 |  |
Mater Dei High School | Charlotte Carmichael '27 | 53 |
| 6 |  |
Point Loma High School | Kaya Hancock '26 | 54 |
| 7 | |
San Marcos High School | Emma Edwards '28 | 60 |
| 8 | |
Mater Dei High School | Madison Mansour '26 | 71 |
| 9 |  |
Dos Pueblos | Savannah Zollett '29 | 83 |
| 10 | |
Corona del Mar High School | Camryn Homer '29 | 94 |
| 11 |  |
Las Lomas High School | Ava Adamson '27 | 94 |
| 12 |  |
La Jolla High School | Maggie Ugoretz '28 | 117 |
| 13 |  |
Cathedral Catholic High School | Lauren Grace Macvaugh-Howe '27 | 125 |
| 14 |  |
BASIS Scottsdale | Madeline Mitchell '27 | 130 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Escola '27 | San Marcos High School Royals 1 | 10/10 | 2.46 | 3.51 | +1.05 | 91st → 99th | 3.1 | 7% | 3.5 / 5.7 |
| 2 | Siena Nichols '27 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1 | 10/10 | 2.83 | 2.92 | +0.09 | 96th → 98th | 0.0 | 33% | 4.1 / 4.9 |
| 3 | Maddie Nichols '27 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2 | 10/10 | 2.83 | 2.86 | +0.03 | 96th → 97th | 0.0 | 36% | 4.3 / 5.0 |
| 4 | Paloma Arrigo '26 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 3 | 10/10 | 2.44 | 2.43 | −0.00 | 91st → 91st | 0.0 | 36% | 5.0 / 5.8 |
| 5 | Charlotte Carmichael '27 | Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2 | 10/10 | 2.10 | 2.61 | +0.51 | 84th → 94th | 0.9 | 32% | 5.3 / 6.4 |
| 6 | Kaya Hancock '26 | Point Loma High School | 10/10 | 1.71 | 2.18 | +0.46 | 78th → 86th | 0.7 | 21% | 5.4 / 7.2 |
| 7 | Emma Edwards '28 | San Marcos High School Royals 2 | 10/10 | 1.88 | 2.15 | +0.28 | 81st → 85th | 0.3 | 36% | 6.0 / 6.9 |
| 8 | Madison Mansour '26 | Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1 | 10/10 | 1.80 | 1.85 | +0.05 | 80th → 81st | 0.0 | 52% | 7.1 / 7.1 |
| 9 | Savannah Zollett '29 | Dos Pueblos | 10/10 | 1.46 | 1.55 | +0.10 | 71st → 74th | 0.0 | 63% | 8.3 / 7.7 |
| 10 | Ava Adamson '27 | Las Lomas High School | 10/10 | 1.07u | 0.70 | −0.37 | 60th → 45th | 0.5 | 70% | 9.4 / 8.4 |
| 10 | Camryn Homer '29 | Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 4 | 10/10 | 1.02 | 0.80 | −0.22 | 58th → 50th | 0.2 | 66% | 9.4 / 8.5 |
| 12 | Maggie Ugoretz '28 | La Jolla High School | 10/10 | 0.27 | 0.15 | −0.13 | 30th → 26th | 0.1 | 85% | 11.7 / 9.9 |
| 13 | Lauren Grace Macvaugh-Howe '27 | Cathedral Catholic High School | 10/10 | -0.66 | -0.95 | −0.29 | 8th → 4th | 0.2 | 76% | 12.5 / 11.4 |
| 14 | Madeline Mitchell '27 | BASIS Scottsdale | 10/10 | 0.00u | -1.36 | −1.36 | 21st → 1st | 5.3 | 97% | 13.0 / 10.3 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
