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ISSA 2025 Cressy Singlehanded Champs ILCA 7 Open

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Corona del Mar High School Corona del Mar High School Michael Sentovich '26 6 4 2 3 6 6 1 2 4 1 35
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Nathan Pine '26 1 3 7 4 4 3 3 4 1 12 42
Clear Lake High School Clear Lake High School Zach Brown '26 3 7 6 7 1 2 2 5 2 9 44
Cathedral Catholic High School Cathedral Catholic High School Owen Fretwell '26 2 2 5 1 2 4 5 8 8 8 45
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Nick Crull '26 4 1 8 2 3 5 6 1 10 6 46
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Beck Brill '27 DNS 5 1 5 7 1 4 6 5 2 49
Christchurch School Christchurch School Sam De Los Reyes '26 5 8 3 8 11 7 9 3 6 10 70
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School John Lieber '26 10 9 4 6 9 10 12 7 9 7 83
Milton Academy Milton Academy Dylan Cafferty '27 DNS 6 11 10 5 9 11 9 7 3 84
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Sebastien Leroy '26 9 12 10 9 8 8 8 12 3 11 90
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Caio Sullivan '27 7 10 9 11 10 11 7 10 11 5 91
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Hartley Cooper '26 8 11 12 12 12 12 10 11 12 4 104

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  12 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Michael Sentovich '26Corona del Mar High School10/103.174.05+0.8899th → 99th2.29%3.5 / 5.4
2Nathan Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School10/103.473.47−0.0199th → 99th0.032%4.2 / 5.0
3Zach Brown '26Clear Lake High School10/102.69u3.67+0.9895th → 99th2.916%4.4 / 6.3
4Owen Fretwell '26Cathedral Catholic High School10/103.433.52+0.1099th → 99th0.040%4.5 / 5.0
5Nick Crull '26Rocky River High School10/103.103.39+0.3099th → 99th0.330%4.6 / 5.6
6Beck Brill '27Immaculata La Salle High School10/103.033.88+0.8598th → 99th1.931%4.9 / 5.7
7Sam De Los Reyes '26Christchurch School10/102.802.40−0.4096th → 91st0.674%7.0 / 6.1
8John Lieber '26Arrowhead High School10/102.281.68−0.6088th → 77th1.280%8.3 / 7.0
9Dylan Cafferty '27Milton Academy10/102.102.02−0.0984th → 83rd0.071%8.4 / 7.3
10Sebastien Leroy '26Mercer Island High School10/102.06u1.34−0.7283rd → 68th1.782%9.0 / 7.4
11Caio Sullivan '27Tabor Academy10/101.771.60−0.1779th → 75th0.176%9.1 / 7.9
12Hartley Cooper '26Sts. Peter & Paul10/100.920.39−0.5455th → 33rd0.778%10.4 / 9.2

Conditions — 11/01/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 4.0 kn
Gusts to 10.5 kn
From WSW (258°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion University — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion University in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.10)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Old Dominion University, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →