Lake Forest Fall Scramble

HostLake Forest Parks and Recreation Sailing
Date10/18/2025
TypePromotional
Boat420E
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Marquette University High School	Hill Toppers	24	24
2	New Trier HS	Trevian	27	27
3	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	30	30
4	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	39	39
5	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais	47	47
6	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	50	50
7	Lake Forest Academy	Varsity	51	51
8	Beacon Academy	Trailblazers	61	61
9	DePaul College Prep	Rams 1	71	71
10	DePaul College Prep	Rams 2	75	75
11	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	76	76
12	Glenbrook South High School	Titans	88	88
13	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	99	99
14	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	111	111
15	Fenwick High School	Friars	115	115

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Marquette University High School	Hill Toppers	4	3	6	4	1	2	2	2	24	Carson Boemer '27 [1-2, 5-7] Tj Sippel '28 [3-4, 8] Reuben Pike '26 [1-2, 5-7] Declan Wagner '28 [3] Jackson Scott '29 [4, 8]
New Trier HS	Trevian	2	2	1	11	5	4	1	1	27	Jackson Hargis '29 [1-3, 7-8] Anika Voight '28 [4-6] Gabriel Vegas '27 [1-3, 7-8] Arun Wick '29 [4-6]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	1	6	3	7	2	3	4	4	30	Jack Shuttleworth '29 [1-3, 7-8] Nash Jaeger '30 [4-6] Aiden Cronert '28 [1-3, 7-8] Conor Mccusker '29 [4-6]
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	5	5	4	8	3	5	3	6	39	Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [1-2, 5-7] Jack Carter '28 [3-4, 8] Ranya Patel '27 [1-3, 5-7] Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [4, 8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais	9	4	5	5	4	1	DNF	3	47	Akhil Marur '27 Claire Schmitt '28
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	6	1	2	3	7	12	10	9	50	Adler Lafayette '28 [1-3, 7-8] Jordan Abell '27 [4-6] Ryan Gupta '30 [1-3, 7-8] Summer Overton '30 [4-6]
Lake Forest Academy	Varsity	3	8	7	2	9	7	5	10	51	Jeffrey Chang '28 Mirabelle Duboeuf '27
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers	8	7	11	6	6	9	7	7	61	Nikolaos Papastratakos '29 Harry Moore '28
DePaul College Prep	Rams 1	10	9	12	9	12	6	8	5	71	Jack Markuson '27 Maggie Gallagher '28
DePaul College Prep	Rams 2	11	12	10	1	8	DNS	9	8	75	Ronan Binney '27 Michael Cucinotta '28
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	7	11	9	12	11	8	6	12	76	Camden Brandt '28 Dash Nickell '28
Glenbrook South High School	Titans	12	13	8	10	10	13	11	11	88	Jonah Winer '28 Piotr Pawlik '29
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	13	10	14	13	13	10	13	13	99	Abigail Lee '29 [1-8] Charlotte Lyman '30 [1-4] Emma Rubash '30 [5-8]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	15	14	13	14	14	11	DNS	14	111	Noor Shammaa '30 Kosh Griffin '30
Fenwick High School	Friars	14	15	15	15	15	14	12	15	115	Sofia Zoko '26 [1-6] Gian Mahajan '28 [7-8] Lauren Cheronis '27 [1-2] Gian Mahajan '28 [3-4] Cooper Jones '26 [5-6] Sean Soriano '28 [7-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Beacon Academy Trailblazers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
DePaul College Prep Rams 1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
DePaul College Prep Rams 2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Fenwick High School Friars	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Glenbrook South High School Titans	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lake Forest High School Scouts	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Lake Forest Academy Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Latin School of Chicago Romans	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Loyola Academy Ramblers	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
New Trier HS Trevian	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Beacon Academy	Trailblazers	Nikolaos Papastratakos '29	Harry Moore '28
DePaul College Prep	Rams 1	Jack Markuson '27	Maggie Gallagher '28
DePaul College Prep	Rams 2	Ronan Binney '27	Michael Cucinotta '28
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 1	Camden Brandt '28	Dash Nickell '28
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits 2	Noor Shammaa '30	Kosh Griffin '30
Fenwick High School	Friars	Sofia Zoko '26 [1-6] Gian Mahajan '28 [7-8]	Lauren Cheronis '27 [1-2] Gian Mahajan '28 [3-4] Cooper Jones '26 [5-6] Sean Soriano '28 [7-8]
Glenbrook South High School	Titans	Jonah Winer '28	Piotr Pawlik '29
Lake Forest Academy	Varsity	Jeffrey Chang '28	Mirabelle Duboeuf '27
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [1-2, 5-7] Jack Carter '28 [3-4, 8]	Ranya Patel '27 [1-3, 5-7] Tullis Mengelkoch '28 [4, 8]
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	Adler Lafayette '28 [1-3, 7-8] Jordan Abell '27 [4-6]	Ryan Gupta '30 [1-3, 7-8] Summer Overton '30 [4-6]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	Abigail Lee '29 [1-8]	Charlotte Lyman '30 [1-4] Emma Rubash '30 [5-8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Lycee Francais	Akhil Marur '27	Claire Schmitt '28
Marquette University High School	Hill Toppers	Carson Boemer '27 [1-2, 5-7] Tj Sippel '28 [3-4, 8]	Reuben Pike '26 [1-2, 5-7] Declan Wagner '28 [3] Jackson Scott '29 [4, 8]
New Trier HS	Trevian	Jackson Hargis '29 [1-3, 7-8] Anika Voight '28 [4-6]	Gabriel Vegas '27 [1-3, 7-8] Arun Wick '29 [4-6]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Jack Shuttleworth '29 [1-3, 7-8] Nash Jaeger '30 [4-6]	Aiden Cronert '28 [1-3, 7-8] Conor Mccusker '29 [4-6]

Conditions — 10/18/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1004.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 73°F ↓ 63°F

Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.9 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 22.9 kn

From SSW (213°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine7.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1004.3 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Lake Forest Parks and Recreation Sailing: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Forest Parks and Recreation Sailing by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lake Forest Parks and Recreation Sailing: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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