Navigate

MISSA Cressy Qualifier - ILCA 6 Boys

# SchoolSailor TOT
1 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Nicholas Berkowitz '28 31
2 Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School William Utz '28 59
3 Black River Public School Black River Public School Matthew Tevelde '26 62
4 Badger High School Badger High School Oliver Gray '27 63
5 Oak Park River Forest Oak Park River Forest Jp Crabb '28 66
6 New Trier HS New Trier HS Nathan Finkelstein '26 91
7 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Charlie Pensom '29 95
8 Zeeland High School Zeeland High School Cameron Bert '26 110
9 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Joseph Cavanaugh '27 112
10 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Cole Bebeau '27 113
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Andrew Roeder '26 114
12 Bay High School Bay High School Charles Juratic '29 116
13 St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Adi Narayan '27 122
14 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Duke Diep '27 139
15 Black River Public School Black River Public School James Tevelde '29 166
16 Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Rider Myers '26 171
17 Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial Jack Goggins '26 178
18 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Peter Horst '26 183
19 Black River Public School Black River Public School Henrik Bauman '27 195
20 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mark Yakovlev '28 197
21 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Akhil Marur '27 202
22 Hawken School Hawken School Vaughn Keare '27 207
23 Forest Hills Eastern High School Forest Hills Eastern High School Oliver Vanderground '29 217
24 Dublin Coffman Dublin Coffman Ike Becker '28 225
25 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Woods Moorhead '29 230
26 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Diesel Baer '28 232
27 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Finn Connolly '26 233
28 Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Tyler David '27 236
29 New Trier HS New Trier HS Mason Allen '29 267
30 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Liam Strobel '29 272
31 Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Jeffrey Chang '28 292
32 Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Kevin Kesinger '29 300
33 New Trier HS New Trier HS Jackson Hargis '29 316
SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Nicholas Berkowitz '28 2 1 5 2 2 1 4 7 3 4 31
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School William Utz '28 3 4 13 5 13 4 2 4 2 9 59
Black River Public School Black River Public School Matthew Tevelde '26 1 6 4 17 6 15 5 2 5 1 62
Badger High School Badger High School Oliver Gray '27 10 3 1 1 1 7 19 10 9 2 63
Oak Park River Forest Oak Park River Forest Jp Crabb '28 7 8 7 10 3 2 3 1 4 21 66
New Trier HS New Trier HS Nathan Finkelstein '26 11 13 10 7 11 14 9 3 1 12 91
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Charlie Pensom '29 5 5 2 11 9 11 8 28 11 5 95
Zeeland High School Zeeland High School Cameron Bert '26 9 7 6 19 12 6 7 19 17 8 110
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Joseph Cavanaugh '27 12 20 16 8 15 8 6 8 8 11 112
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Cole Bebeau '27 15 15 8 9 7 3 17 16 20 3 113
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Andrew Roeder '26 13 25 3 3 4 21 13 5 13 14 114
Bay High School Bay High School Charles Juratic '29 8 2 12 12 14 24 24 6 7 7 116
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Adi Narayan '27 4 14 9 4 5 16 10 12 29 19 122
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Duke Diep '27 6 16 26 22 16 10 1 9 10 23 139
Black River Public School Black River Public School James Tevelde '29 25 9 19 15 27 17 15 21 12 6 166
Rocky River High School Rocky River High School Rider Myers '26 17 24 15 6 20 9 14 25 23 18 171
Catholic Memorial Catholic Memorial Jack Goggins '26 21 11 20 20 8 22 11 17 16 32 178
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Peter Horst '26 16 21 11 14 22 20 18 29 22 10 183
Black River Public School Black River Public School Henrik Bauman '27 14 28 14 28 24 5 21 20 24 17 195
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Mark Yakovlev '28 22 27 17 16 10 28 12 23 18 24 197
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Akhil Marur '27 20 23 22 18 31 13 27 11 21 16 202
Hawken School Hawken School Vaughn Keare '27 24 10 32 27 23 12 22 14 14 29 207
Forest Hills Eastern High School Forest Hills Eastern High School Oliver Vanderground '29 32 12 25 24 29 27 25 15 6 22 217
Dublin Coffman Dublin Coffman Ike Becker '28 18 17 24 29 26 26 20 26 26 13 225
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Woods Moorhead '29 31 22 21 21 19 18 29 18 25 26 230
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Diesel Baer '28 28 30 23 13 21 OCS 16 27 15 25 232
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Finn Connolly '26 30 19 18 33 17 25 26 13 19 33 233
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Tyler David '27 19 31 28 26 18 19 28 24 28 15 236
New Trier HS New Trier HS Mason Allen '29 26 18 29 23 25 32 33 31 30 20 267
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Liam Strobel '29 23 26 30 25 28 23 31 32 27 27 272
Lake Forest Academy Lake Forest Academy Jeffrey Chang '28 27 33 31 30 30 29 23 30 31 28 292
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Kevin Kesinger '29 33 29 27 32 32 30 32 22 32 31 300
New Trier HS New Trier HS Jackson Hargis '29 29 32 33 31 DNS 31 30 33 33 30 316

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  33 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nicholas Berkowitz '28Arrowhead High School Warhawks 210/102.634.42+1.7994th → 99th8.02%3.1 / 9.8
2William Utz '28Pewaukee High School Pirates 210/101.953.16+1.2182nd → 99th4.52%5.9 / 12.3
3Matthew Tevelde '26Black River Public School Varsity 310/102.702.94+0.2495th → 98th0.219%6.2 / 9.1
4Oliver Gray '27Badger High School10/101.752.89+1.1579th → 97th4.15%6.3 / 13.3
5Jp Crabb '28Oak Park River Forest10/102.452.83+0.3891st → 96th0.520%6.6 / 10.3
6Nathan Finkelstein '26New Trier HS Trevian 210/100.842.48+1.6452nd → 92nd7.94%9.1 / 17.4
7Charlie Pensom '29Rocky River High School Varsity 110/101.042.07+1.0359th → 84th3.47%9.5 / 16.6
8Cameron Bert '26Zeeland High School10/101.652.05+0.4076th → 83rd0.627%11.0 / 13.6
9Joseph Cavanaugh '27Arrowhead High School Warhawks 310/101.652.03+0.3876th → 83rd0.633%11.2 / 13.7
10Cole Bebeau '27Arrowhead High School Warhawks 110/101.651.94+0.2976th → 82nd0.334%11.3 / 13.7
11Andrew Roeder '26Traverse City Central10/101.161.80+0.6463rd → 80th1.518%11.4 / 16.0
12Charles Juratic '29Bay High School10/100.801.74+0.9450th → 79th3.011%11.6 / 17.8
13Adi Narayan '27St. Paul Academy (MN)10/101.361.55+0.1968th → 74th0.128%12.2 / 15.1
14Duke Diep '27Jones College Prep10/101.501.38−0.1273rd → 68th0.148%13.9 / 14.5
15James Tevelde '29Black River Public School Varsity 210/101.201.06−0.1465th → 60th0.157%16.6 / 15.9
16Rider Myers '26Rocky River High School Varsity 210/101.001.11+0.1158th → 61st0.154%17.1 / 16.7
17Jack Goggins '26Catholic Memorial10/100.970.71−0.2657th → 46th0.358%17.8 / 16.9
18Peter Horst '26Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 210/101.040.91−0.1359th → 54th0.164%18.3 / 16.6
19Henrik Bauman '27Black River Public School Varsity 110/100.610.67+0.0642nd → 45th0.057%19.5 / 18.5
20Mark Yakovlev '28Minnetonka High School10/101.150.67−0.4863rd → 45th1.177%19.7 / 16.2
21Akhil Marur '27Lycee Francais de Chicago10/100.530.49−0.0439th → 38th0.059%20.2 / 19.1
22Vaughn Keare '27Hawken School10/100.220.25+0.0328th → 29th0.054%20.7 / 20.2
23Oliver Vanderground '29Forest Hills Eastern High School10/100.660.16−0.5045th → 26th1.175%21.7 / 18.4
24Ike Becker '28Dublin Coffman10/100.660.34−0.3245th → 32nd0.579%22.5 / 18.4
25Woods Moorhead '29Lake Forest High School10/101.070.23−0.8460th → 28th3.691%23.0 / 16.5
26Diesel Baer '28Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 110/100.520.37−0.1539th → 33rd0.180%23.2 / 19.0
27Finn Connolly '26Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 110/10-0.17-0.36−0.1817th → 14th0.157%23.3 / 22.2
28Tyler David '27Pewaukee High School Pirates 110/100.250.13−0.1229th → 25th0.174%23.6 / 20.3
29Mason Allen '29New Trier HS Trevian 110/100.34-0.85−1.1831st → 6th5.893%26.7 / 19.9
30Liam Strobel '29Wayzata High School10/10-0.20-0.34−0.1416th → 14th0.185%27.2 / 22.2
31Jeffrey Chang '28Lake Forest Academy10/10-0.18-0.86−0.6817th → 6th2.095%29.2 / 22.1
32Kevin Kesinger '29Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack 210/10-0.53-1.23−0.7010th → 2nd1.995%30.0 / 23.6
33Jackson Hargis '29New Trier HS Trevian 310/10-0.95-1.62−0.684th → 1st1.498%31.6 / 25.1

Conditions — 09/13/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From SSE (149°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine3.9 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1018.1 hPa Rain0.10 in

What this breeze does at Black River Public/Zeeland West — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Black River Public/Zeeland West in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Black River Public/Zeeland West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Black River Public/Zeeland West: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →