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MISSA Cressy Qualifier - ILCA 6 Girls

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Nissa Berman '26 2 1 1 1 2 4 3 1 3 5 23
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Cate Baldwin '28 3 3 3 4 1 6 10 2 1 1 34
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Reese Kottke '26 4 5 7 6 4 1 1 3 5 2 38
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Maggie Mcgary '28 1 6 6 2 5 5 5 4 2 3 39
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Anastasia Gilbert '26 7 4 4 5 9 3 11 7 4 11 65
New Albany High School New Albany High School Libby Gode '27 9 7 9 3 6 10 2 8 7 12 73
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Vivienne Kelly '27 12 9 2 8 8 8 4 5 12 7 75
Dublin Jerome Dublin Jerome Macy Savage '27 5 8 5 10 3 12 13 9 9 10 84
Troy High School Troy High School Maya Nagy '26 8 2 10 12 10 14 9 12 11 6 94
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Ana Kozak '27 10 13 12 15 15 2 6 10 8 4 95
Grosse Pointe North High School Grosse Pointe North High School Sofia Gualdoni '26 11 12 14 11 13 9 8 6 6 9 99
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27 13 14 8 7 7 13 7 13 10 14 106
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Harper Gordon '26 6 10 13 9 12 11 15 15 14 8 113
Black River Public School Black River Public School Olive Mcgough '27 14 15 15 13 11 7 12 11 13 13 124
Troy High School Troy High School Julia Triculescu '26 15 11 11 14 14 15 14 14 15 15 138

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  15 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Nissa Berman '26Jones College Prep10/102.853.50+0.6596th → 99th1.111%2.3 / 3.8
2Cate Baldwin '28Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL10/101.532.58+1.0674th → 93rd3.07%3.4 / 6.2
3Reese Kottke '26Minnetonka High School Skippers 310/101.852.42+0.5781st → 91st1.020%3.8 / 5.5
4Maggie Mcgary '28Minnetonka High School Skippers 110/101.432.51+1.0771st → 92nd3.312%3.9 / 6.4
5Anastasia Gilbert '26Minnetonka High School Skippers 210/100.461.28+0.8235th → 66th2.220%6.5 / 8.4
6Libby Gode '27New Albany High School10/100.860.96+0.1052nd → 57th0.047%7.3 / 7.6
7Vivienne Kelly '27Lake Forest High School10/100.940.81−0.1456th → 51st0.154%7.5 / 7.4
8Macy Savage '27Dublin Jerome10/100.620.55−0.0843rd → 40th0.056%8.4 / 8.1
9Maya Nagy '26Troy High School Troy 110/100.100.18+0.0824th → 27th0.053%9.4 / 9.2
10Ana Kozak '27Grosse Pointe South High School10/100.42-0.45−0.8734th → 12th2.567%9.5 / 8.5
11Sofia Gualdoni '26Grosse Pointe North High School10/100.300.12−0.1831st → 25th0.171%9.9 / 8.7
12Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27Wayzata High School Navy 110/100.24u-0.27−0.5129th → 15th1.078%10.6 / 8.9
13Harper Gordon '26Wayzata High School Navy 210/10-0.23-0.80−0.5716th → 6th1.076%11.3 / 9.8
14Olive Mcgough '27Black River Public School10/10-0.06-0.91−0.8520th → 5th2.793%12.4 / 9.4
15Julia Triculescu '26Troy High School Troy 210/10-1.59-1.55+0.041st → 1st0.084%13.8 / 12.2

Conditions — 09/13/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1018.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 15.9 kn
From SSE (149°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine3.9 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1018.1 hPa Rain0.10 in

What this breeze does at Black River Public/Zeeland West — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Black River Public/Zeeland West in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Black River Public/Zeeland West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Black River Public/Zeeland West: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →