MDISA Ryken Fleet OCT-2025 Tier 3

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 15 10 25
2 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 23 10 33
3 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 14 25 39
4 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 27 31 58
5 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 35 34 69
6 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 39 39 78
7 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 45 36 81
8 Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 33 50 83
9 Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 43 47 90
10 Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 56 48 104
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 3 2 1 1 6 14 Zachary Rudd '29
Mason Riley '28
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 4 1 1 5 2 2 15 Callie Flesch '28
Ben Rashkin '28
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 2 5 3 4 7 23 Austin Brelage '30
Tucker Smith '30
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 5 7 2 3 3 27 Max Wingate '30
Beau Sink '31
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 8 10 4 4 6 1 33 Finn Falk '30
John Thomas Pachler '30
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 3 4 3 7 10 8 35 Charles Massenburg '29 [1-3]
Tejas Suri '28 [4-6]
Belle Woodburn '28 [1-3]
Teddy Dyckman '29 [4-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 6 8 5 9 39 Grace Churchman '29
Emma Bliss '29
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 9 9 8 6 7 4 43 Andrew Jarrell '29 [1-3]
James Kesler '29 [4-6]
Nikki Rahim '29 [1-3]
Zachary Zupkusky '27 [4-6]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 6 8 9 9 8 5 45 Madeline Cadmus '29
Brianna Colon '29
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 10 7 10 10 9 10 56 Emma Kopelman '30 [1-3]
Carmen Appel '28 [4-6]
Carmen Appel '28 [1-3]
Emma Kopelman '30 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 2 1 2 1 2 2 10 Sterling Muchnick '29
Garrett Szymendera '28
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Bethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron 3 2 1 2 1 1 10 Ethan Snyder '27
Orly Pearlman '29
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 5 3 5 4 3 25 Ian Murphy '29
Zachary Marshall '30
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 1 3 6 8 6 7 31 Colt Touchton '30
Ryan Deibler '28
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 1 4 6 4 7 8 5 34 Owen Beauchamp '29
Kennedy Hover '29
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 7 10 5 3 7 4 36 Ocean Williams '28 [1-6]
Garrett Shaw '29 [1-3]
Belle Woodburn '28 [4-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 8 7 9 4 3 8 39 Sara Barmucci '29
Hollyann Pierson '27
Archbishop Spalding Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers 6 9 10 6 10 6 47 Vikki Rahim '29
Becca Rea '29
Bishop O'Connell High School Bishop O'Connell High School Knights 9 4 7 9 9 10 48 Caroline Davis '28 [1-3]
Hannah Herrity '27 [4-6]
Hannah Herrity '27 [1-3]
Caroline Davis '28 [4-6]
Annapolis High School Annapolis High School Panthers 10 8 8 10 5 9 50 Kadee Clowry '28
Ted Johnson '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers111333
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers222444
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron333555
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights444666
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins555777
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets666888
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders777999
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers888101010
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 1999111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 2101010222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Annapolis High SchoolAnnapolis High School Panthers222444
Archbishop SpaldingArchbishop Spalding Cavaliers333555
Bethesda Chevy-Chase HSBethesda Chevy-Chase HS Battlin' Baron444666
Bishop O'Connell High SchoolBishop O'Connell High School Knights555777
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins666888
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets777999
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders888101010
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers999111
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 1101010222
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights 2111333

Conditions — 10/18/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1016.9 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 72°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.0 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From S (183°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine7.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1016.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's Ryken: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.22 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.31
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.67 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Mary's Ryken, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →