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SAISA Cressy Qualifer - Girls

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Louise Martin '26 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 1 18
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Kyla Benesch '27 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 2 2 37
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Marina Wardlaw '27 5 3 2 2 2 5 4 3 4 2 1 2 7 9 9 60
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Danielle Lynch Smith '26 4 9 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 4 3 5 2 7 7 72
Coral Gables Senior High Coral Gables Senior High Kailee Moure '29 9 5 4 4 4 2 5 5 10 7 5 4 6 3 3 76
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Elisa De Becker '28 3 4 9 8 6 DNF 6 7 3 5 6 7 4 4 6 92
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Gabi Mascarenhas '28 6 6 6 6 8 6 7 6 8 6 8 12 5 5 4 99
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Mia Noritake '29 8 8 7 7 10 10 9 9 6 11 9 6 10 13 5 128
MAST Academy MAST Academy Elena Bazzoni '28 7 7 10 13 7 7 10 DNF 7 8 7 10 8 8 8 131
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Jessica Martello '27 10 10 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 9 6 10 131
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Marion Smith '29 12 13 12 10 12 9 11 DNF 13 12 11 11 13 11 11 175
Academia Maria Reina Academia Maria Reina Maria Gonzalez '28 11 12 13 12 13 DNF DNS DNF 11 10 12 9 11 10 12 178
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Lola Joh '29 13 11 11 11 11 DNF DNS DNF 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 187

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  13 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Louise Martin '26Academic Magnet High School15/152.426.53+4.1191st → 99th28.9<1%1.2 / 5.0
2Kyla Benesch '27Palmer Trinity School15/152.673.86+1.1895th → 99th5.33%2.5 / 4.6
3Marina Wardlaw '27Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 315/152.002.61+0.6183rd → 94th1.79%4.0 / 5.8
4Danielle Lynch Smith '26St. Thomas Aquinas High School15/152.18u2.34+0.1686th → 89th0.137%4.8 / 5.5
5Kailee Moure '29Coral Gables Senior High15/150.822.24+1.4251st → 87th8.55%5.1 / 8.1
6Elisa De Becker '28Ransom Everglades School15/151.74u1.99+0.2579th → 83rd0.349%6.1 / 6.3
7Gabi Mascarenhas '28Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 115/151.651.53−0.1276th → 74th0.155%6.6 / 6.5
8Mia Noritake '29Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 215/150.740.50−0.2347th → 38th0.357%8.5 / 8.2
9Elena Bazzoni '28MAST Academy15/151.150.86−0.3063rd → 52nd0.577%8.7 / 7.4
9Jessica Martello '27H. B. Plant High School15/151.320.81−0.5067th → 51st1.681%8.7 / 7.1
11Marion Smith '29Ashley Hall15/150.18-0.57−0.7527th → 10th2.696%11.7 / 9.2
12Maria Gonzalez '28Academia Maria Reina15/150.45u-0.31−0.7635th → 15th2.698%11.9 / 8.6
13Lola Joh '29John T. Hoggard High School15/150.53-1.03−1.5639th → 4th9.5>99%12.5 / 8.6

Conditions — 10/04/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1021.0 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.3 kn
avg  ·  max 13.6 kn
Gusts to 27.8 kn
From NE (55°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1021.0 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at James Island Charter — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at James Island Charter in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at James Island Charter by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at James Island Charter, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →