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SAISA Cressy Qualifier - ILCA 6

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 TOT
School for Advanced Studies School for Advanced Studies David Coates '27 1 1 1 3 2 3 1 1 3 5 3 3 1 1 1 30
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 2 5 4 4 6 4 4 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 44
The Classical Academy of Sarasota The Classical Academy of Sarasota Jackson Wilcox '27 4 3 6 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 2 4 9 5 53
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Cole Fanchi '26 3 2 3 1 4 1 2 3 DNF 2 7 4 3 3 3 69
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Leonardo Tarzani '27 7 8 7 5 3 6 14 6 11 8 11 5 5 13 7 116
MAST Academy MAST Academy Davide Bazzoni '26 13 4 8 8 11 13 12 10 12 13 13 6 10 4 6 143
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Brayden Zawyer '28 6 6 12 13 5 8 7 7 19 14 9 9 6 10 14 145
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Miles Julien '27 10 11 5 10 14 14 11 11 10 7 16 8 9 6 4 146
Riverview High School Riverview High School Raphael Ducrey '30 9 18 10 14 8 5 5 8 18 4 10 11 7 14 10 151
Miami Beach Senior High School Miami Beach Senior High School Brody Wood '26 5 10 11 15 10 11 8 12 16 6 6 12 14 15 15 166
Wando High School Wando High School Alessandro Mazzi '26 17 13 9 11 17 7 13 13 13 23 8 7 8 5 8 172
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Antonio De Andrade '27 11 15 2 9 9 DNS 9 17 9 9 15 10 13 12 12 180
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Sander Block '28 15 21 15 7 16 12 10 9 8 15 4 15 23 8 19 197
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School John Hartney '28 8 7 13 16 7 9 DNS DNS 7 11 20 20 18 7 11 210
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Marcus Durlach '28 16 14 17 18 18 19 18 19 1 22 5 14 12 11 13 217
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Ross Campbell '29 12 17 16 6 13 16 20 15 17 16 18 17 16 22 9 230
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Emilio '28 18 12 22 DNS 21 DNS 6 5 4 10 14 13 11 17 DNS 237
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Ben Rowson '29 19 9 19 22 15 18 17 18 6 18 17 22 20 18 17 255
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Pierce Weber '27 20 20 18 12 12 15 15 14 14 19 21 19 17 20 20 256
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Giorgio Boggio '29 21 23 20 20 19 10 16 16 24 20 19 16 15 19 16 274
Porter-Gaud School Porter-Gaud School Thomas Weil '27 23 22 23 21 22 20 19 20 15 17 23 21 22 16 18 302
Westminster Christian School Westminster Christian School Peter Gleason '28 22 16 21 17 20 17 21 22 20 25 24 18 19 21 21 304
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Charles Julien '29 14 19 14 19 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 12 12 23 DNS DNS DNS 337
Wando High School Wando High School Oliver Johnston '27 24 24 24 24 23 21 22 21 DNS 21 DNF 25 21 23 23 352
Bishop England High School Bishop England High School Harrison Ward '29 25 25 25 25 24 DNF 23 23 21 24 22 24 24 24 22 359
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Max Rieger '28 26 DNF DNF 23 DNF DNS DNS DNS 22 26 25 DNS 25 25 24 392
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Thomas Bearden '27 27 DNF DNS DNF DNF DNS DNS DNS 23 27 26 26 26 26 25 402

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  27 boats · 15 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1David Coates '27School for Advanced Studies15/153.42u5.87+2.4499th → 99th17.9<1%2.0 / 7.6
2James Pine '26Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 315/154.084.85+0.7799th → 99th2.54%2.9 / 5.6
3Jackson Wilcox '27The Classical Academy of Sarasota15/153.02u4.51+1.4998th → 99th8.92%3.5 / 8.8
4Cole Fanchi '26St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 215/153.614.94+1.3399th → 99th6.519%4.6 / 7.0
5Leonardo Tarzani '27Immaculata La Salle High School15/152.052.93+0.8983rd → 98th3.911%7.7 / 12.1
6Davide Bazzoni '26MAST Academy15/152.422.47+0.0691st → 92nd0.038%9.5 / 10.8
7Brayden Zawyer '28Ransom Everglades School Raiders 215/152.402.33−0.0791st → 89th0.038%9.7 / 10.9
8Miles Julien '27Pine Crest School Panthers 115/152.222.42+0.2087th → 91st0.233%9.7 / 11.4
9Raphael Ducrey '30Riverview High School15/150.70u2.35+1.6445th → 89th11.83%10.1 / 16.9
10Brody Wood '26Miami Beach Senior High School15/152.13u2.11−0.0284th → 84th0.045%11.1 / 11.8
11Alessandro Mazzi '26Wando High School Warriors 215/151.461.91+0.4572nd → 82nd1.124%11.5 / 14.1
12Antonio De Andrade '27Ransom Everglades School Raiders 315/151.962.18+0.2283rd → 86th0.346%12.0 / 12.5
13Sander Block '28Ransom Everglades School Raiders 115/151.911.42−0.5082nd → 70th1.658%13.1 / 12.5
14John Hartney '28St. Petersburg High School15/152.191.82−0.3786th → 80th0.876%14.0 / 11.5
15Marcus Durlach '28Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 215/151.521.18−0.3474th → 65th0.756%14.5 / 13.9
16Ross Campbell '29Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 115/151.181.18+0.0165th → 65th0.053%15.3 / 15.2
17Emilio '28St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 115/150.711.51+0.8046th → 73rd2.639%15.8 / 16.8
18Ben Rowson '29Academic Magnet High School15/151.32u0.85−0.4767th → 52nd1.574%17.0 / 14.7
19Pierce Weber '27St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 315/150.921.00+0.0855th → 58th0.060%17.1 / 16.2
20Giorgio Boggio '29Palmer Trinity School15/151.000.46−0.5458th → 36th1.774%18.3 / 15.8
21Thomas Weil '27Porter-Gaud School15/150.630.19−0.4443rd → 27th1.280%20.1 / 17.2
22Peter Gleason '28Westminster Christian School15/150.440.11−0.3335th → 25th0.777%20.3 / 17.7
23Charles Julien '29Pine Crest School Panthers 215/151.361.09−0.2768th → 60th0.299%22.5 / 14.6
24Oliver Johnston '27Wando High School Warriors 115/15-0.25-0.69−0.4415th → 8th1.089%23.5 / 19.9
25Harrison Ward '29Bishop England High School15/150.11-1.51−1.6225th → 1st12.396%23.9 / 18.7
26Max Rieger '28James Island Charter High School Varsity 215/15-0.65-1.27−0.628th → 2nd1.299%26.1 / 21.1
27Thomas Bearden '27James Island Charter High School Varsity 115/15-1.29-4.03−2.742nd → 1st7.2>99%26.8 / 22.8

Conditions — 10/04/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.0 kn
avg  ·  max 15.2 kn
Gusts to 30.9 kn
From S (179°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1013.1 hPa

What this breeze does at James Island Charter School — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at James Island Charter School in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at James Island Charter School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at James Island Charter School: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →