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Tabor Fall Invite - FJ

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 6 11 6 17
2 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 4 9 13 22
3 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 5 19 14 33
4 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 17 18 35
5 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 7 16 19 35
6 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 23 17 40
7 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 17 25 42
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 4 1 5 1 2 9 Davis Poor '28
Yasha Chumak '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 6 2 2 4 3 11 Solia Witzenburg '28
Hal Field '29
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 7 7 3 5 1 16 Leo Lothian '28
Riley Sullivan '29
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 4 4 2 7 17 Blake Appleton '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 5 1 6 5 17 Che Liu '29
Grady Gao '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 5 6 6 3 4 19 Gaitan Sullivan '29
Joseph Hardman Novak '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 3 7 7 6 23 Caio Sullivan '27
Sean Cassidy '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 6 2 2 1 1 6 Hayden Pyle '28
Leighton Kelley '28
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 4 5 1 3 4 13 Elizabeth Spillane '28
Olivia Wadsworth '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 5 4 3 4 3 14 Grady Gao '27
Mathlida Fletcher '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 6 4 2 5 17 Finn Ladue '27
Nik Shumway '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 3 6 7 2 18 Madeleine Carr '27
Kay Wetmore '27
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 7 1 5 6 7 19 Xander Foresman '29
Clara Robbins '29
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 7 7 5 6 25 George Spalding '28
Nick Proudlove '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 121212323
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 222222424
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 323232525
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 424242727
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 525252828
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 627272121
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 728282222

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 122222424
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 223232525
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 324242727
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 425252828
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 527272121
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 628282222
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves 721212323

Conditions — 09/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.2 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1015.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.51)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →