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Thursday Throwdown HSC #1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Wildcats 18 18
2 New Albany High School New Albany High School Mixed 20 20
3 Bishop Watterson Bishop Watterson Mixed 21 21
4 Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots 22 22
5 Bexley High School Bexley High School Lions 27 27
6 Olentangy Liberty High School Olentangy Liberty High School Mixed 31 31
7 Olentangy High School Olentangy High School Mixed 32 32
8 Oakstone Academy Oakstone Academy Mixed 32 32
9 Dublin Coffman Dublin Coffman Mixed 34 34
10 Worthington Kilbourne Worthington Kilbourne Mixed 35 35
11 New Albany High School New Albany High School GIrls 36 36
12 Dublin Jerome Dublin Jerome Mixed 37 37
13 Dublin Jerome Dublin Jerome JV 42 42
14 Westerville South High School Westerville South High School Mixed 45 45
15 Oakstone Academy Oakstone Academy Tigers 49 49
16 Westerville Central High School Westerville Central High School Mixed 64 64
17 Upper Arlington Upper Arlington Mixed 67 67
18 Thomas Worthington High School Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals 75 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bexley High SchoolBexley High School Lions15151515
Bishop WattersonBishop Watterson Mixed1111
Dublin CoffmanDublin Coffman Mixed13131313
Dublin JeromeDublin Jerome JV17171717
Dublin JeromeDublin Jerome Mixed5555
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School GIrls8888
New Albany High SchoolNew Albany High School Mixed12121212
Oakstone AcademyOakstone Academy Mixed2222
Oakstone AcademyOakstone Academy Tigers9999
Olentangy High SchoolOlentangy High School Mixed14141414
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Mixed16161616
Olentangy Liberty High SchoolOlentangy Liberty High School Patriots6666
Thomas Worthington High SchoolThomas Worthington High School Cardinals3333
Upper ArlingtonUpper Arlington Mixed4444
Westerville Central High SchoolWesterville Central High School Mixed11111111
Westerville South High SchoolWesterville South High School Mixed18181818
Westerville South High SchoolWesterville South High School Wildcats10101010
Worthington KilbourneWorthington Kilbourne Mixed7777

Conditions — 09/25/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1010.8 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 73°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.9 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NW (315°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1010.8 hPa Rain0.28 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Desales: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.47 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 18% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Desales by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at St. Francis Desales, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →