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New Jersey Icebreaker

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 1 10 9 19
2 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Varsity 14 10 24
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 2 11 13 24
4 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 1 15 28 43
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy JV 39 21 60
6 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 2 36 29 65
7 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Varsity 51 34 85
8 Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 1 39 49 88
9 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Varsity 46 53 99
10 Varsity Varsity Varsity 49 51 100
11 Conestoga High School Conestoga High School Varsity 47 59 106
12 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Varsity 60 50 110
13 Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 2 63 50 113
14 Red Bank Regional High School Red Bank Regional High School Varsity 56 70 126
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 1 4 3 1 1 1 10
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 2 3 2 2 2 2 11
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Varsity 2 1 3 4 4 14 Connor Swikart '14
Teddy Schroeder '16
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 1 1 4 4 3 3 15 Jack Denatale '18
Richard Kertatos '18
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 2 6 10 7 6 7 36 Matthew Brooks '15 [1-2]
Margaret Maccormack '17 [3-5]
Camryn Kennedy '17 [1-2]
Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 1 8 6 11 9 5 39 Marissa Murray '14
No Show
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy JV 9 5 12 7 6 39 Liam Shaughnessy '14
Ryan Golding '16
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Varsity 13 7 6 5 OCS 46 Doug Jensen '15
Evan Scaria '14
Conestoga High School Conestoga High School Varsity 7 12 10 10 8 47 Field Dougherty '16
Lizzie Bell '16
Varsity Varsity Varsity 11 9 8 12 9 49
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Varsity 10 13 5 8 OCS 51 Emily Haig '17 [1-5]
Rachel Lang '17 [1-2, 4-5]
Angee Nissan '14 [3]
Red Bank Regional High School Red Bank Regional High School Varsity 5 8 13 DNF DNS 56 Robert Gearon '15
Dominique Neubelt '15
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Varsity 12 11 9 13 OCS 60 Edgard Sanchez '14 [1-5]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Cassidy Gonzalez '14 [5]
Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 2 14 14 14 11 10 63 Mike Freidin '15
Danny Kane '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 1 2 2 2 2 1 9
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Varsity 1 1 3 1 4 10 Charlotte List '14
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Varsity 2 3 3 1 3 3 13
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy JV 4 5 5 5 2 21 Jp Burgess '16
Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 1 7 4 7 4 6 28 Erin Mcgarry '17
Maureen Mcgarry '17
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Varsity 2 6 6 4 6 7 29 Caroline Martocci '18
Madeline Michowski '15
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Varsity 5 11 6 7 5 34 Willy Kates '14 [1-5]
Sam Westby '16 [1-2, 4-5]
No Show [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 1 10 9 8 9 13 49 Samantha Donohue '14
Gal Behiri '15
Summit High School Summit High School Varsity 2 8 8 10 12 12 50 Sarah Elia '16
Juliana Rustum '16
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Varsity 9 10 12 10 9 50 Victoria Tang '15
Grace Vega '17
Varsity Varsity Varsity 12 12 9 8 10 51
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Varsity 11 7 14 13 8 53 John Macmoyle '17
Tommy Michnisky '16
Conestoga High School Conestoga High School Varsity 13 13 11 11 11 59 Elizabeth Torpey '14
Emma Purinton '16
Red Bank Regional High School Red Bank Regional High School Varsity 14 DNF 13 14 14 70 Bryce Barnes '17
Patrick Mccarthy '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Varsity11223
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy JV44556
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Varsity 122334
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Varsity 233445
Conestoga High SchoolConestoga High School Varsity55667
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Varsity 166778
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Varsity 277889
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Varsity889910
VarsityVarsity Varsity99101011
Red Bank Regional High SchoolRed Bank Regional High School Varsity1010111112
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Varsity1111121213
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Varsity1212131314
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Varsity 1131314141
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Varsity 21414112

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Varsity11223
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy JV44556
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Varsity 122334
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Varsity 233445
Conestoga High SchoolConestoga High School Varsity55667
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Varsity 166778
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Varsity 277889
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Varsity889910
VarsityVarsity Varsity99101011
Red Bank Regional High SchoolRed Bank Regional High School Varsity1010111112
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Varsity1111121213
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Varsity1212131314
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Varsity 1131314141
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Varsity 21414112
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Doug Jensen '15 Evan Scaria '14
Varsity John Macmoyle '17 Tommy Michnisky '16
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Liam Shaughnessy '14 Ryan Golding '16
JV Jp Burgess '16 Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Conestoga High School Conestoga High School Field Dougherty '16 Lizzie Bell '16
Varsity Elizabeth Torpey '14 Emma Purinton '16
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Jack Denatale '18 Richard Kertatos '18
Varsity 1 Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Matthew Brooks '15 [1-2]
Margaret Maccormack '17 [3-5]		 Camryn Kennedy '17 [1-2]
Varsity 2 Caroline Martocci '18 Madeline Michowski '15
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Edgard Sanchez '14 [1-5] Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Cassidy Gonzalez '14 [5]
Varsity Victoria Tang '15 Grace Vega '17
Red Bank Regional High School Red Bank Regional High School Robert Gearon '15 Dominique Neubelt '15
Varsity Bryce Barnes '17 Patrick Mccarthy '15
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Connor Swikart '14 Teddy Schroeder '16
Varsity Charlotte List '14
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Emily Haig '17 [1-5] Rachel Lang '17 [1-2, 4-5]
Angee Nissan '14 [3]
Varsity Willy Kates '14 [1-5] Sam Westby '16 [1-2, 4-5]
No Show [3]
Summit High School Summit High School Marissa Murray '14 No Show
Varsity 1 Samantha Donohue '14 Gal Behiri '15
Summit High School Summit High School Mike Freidin '15 Danny Kane '16
Varsity 2 Sarah Elia '16 Juliana Rustum '16

Conditions — 03/29/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Dense drizzle
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From ENE (61°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1018.2 hPa Rain0.48 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Toms River Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Toms River Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →