MN Coed State Championships

HostMinnetonka
Date05/18/2014
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Varsity 1	Varsity 1	11	16	27
2	Varsity 2	Varsity 2	17	24	41
3	Varsity	Varsity	22	23	45
4	Varsity 1	Varsity 1	34	18	52
5	Varsity	Varsity	41	26	67
6	Varsity 2	Varsity 2	45	31	76
7	Varsity	Varsity	49	40	89
8	Varsity	Varsity	37	53	90
9	Varsity 1	Varsity 1	42	56	98
10	Varsity	Varsity	61	59	120
11	Varsity	Varsity	65	63	128
12	Varsity 2	Varsity 2	62	72	134
13	Varsity	Varsity	71	69	140
14	Varsity	Varsity	74	84	158

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	1	2	2	1	4	1	11
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	4	7	1	2	1	2	17
Varsity	Varsity	2	5	3	4	3	5	22
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	7	4	4	5	6	8	34
Varsity	Varsity	9	1	8	8	8	3	37
Varsity	Varsity	8	8	7	7	7	4	41
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	10	3	11	6	5	7	42
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	12	6	5	3	9	10	45
Varsity	Varsity	3	11	10	14	2	9	49
Varsity	Varsity	6	9	12	12	11	11	61
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	11	12	13	10	10	6	62
Varsity	Varsity	14	10	6	9	13	13	65
Varsity	Varsity	5	14	14	11	12	DNS	71
Varsity	Varsity	13	13	9	13	14	12	74

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	1	3	1	6	4	1	16
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	5	1	2	1	6	3	18
Varsity	Varsity	3	2	3	4	5	6	23
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	2	5	9	5	1	2	24
Varsity	Varsity	8	4	4	3	3	4	26
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	6	8	5	2	2	8	31
Varsity	Varsity	4	9	7	7	8	5	40
Varsity	Varsity	14	7	6	9	10	7	53
Varsity 1	Varsity 1	7	6	13	11	7	12	56
Varsity	Varsity	10	11	8	10	11	9	59
Varsity	Varsity	13	12	10	8	9	11	63
Varsity	Varsity	9	14	11	13	12	10	69
Varsity 2	Varsity 2	12	10	12	12	13	13	72
Varsity	Varsity	11	13	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	84

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Varsity Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	2	2	4	4	6	6
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	3	3	5	5	7	7
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	4	4	6	6	8	8
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	5	5	7	7	9	9
Varsity Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10
Varsity Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11
Varsity Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12
Varsity Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13
Varsity Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14
Varsity Varsity	11	11	13	13	1	1
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	12	12	14	14	2	2
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	13	13	1	1	3	3
Varsity Varsity	14	14	2	2	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Varsity Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	5	5	7	7	9	9
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	6	6	8	8	10	10
Varsity Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11
Varsity Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12
Varsity Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13
Varsity Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14
Varsity Varsity	11	11	13	13	1	1
Varsity Varsity	12	12	14	14	2	2
Varsity 1 Varsity 1	13	13	1	1	3	3
Varsity 2 Varsity 2	14	14	2	2	4	4
Varsity Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5

Conditions — 05/18/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1017.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 11.4 kn

Gusts to 24.5 kn

From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1017.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Minnetonka — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Minnetonka in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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