| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Ocean Springs High School | Varsity | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Varsity | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Gulfport High School | Varsity | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Fairhope High School | Varsity | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 413 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 4 of 6 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.470 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocean Springs High School Varsity | 2 | 2.61 | Wesley (Crew) Stanley / Caden Bradshaw Matthew Demboski / Haley Baker Nick Gault / Jake Freeman | 59% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.6 |
| 3 | St. Stanislaus Varsity | 1 | 2.77 | Tomas Braly / Avery Cerniglia Thomas Weber / Tyler Trapani Boyd Housey / Charles Breath | 66% | 2–2 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 5 | Fairhope High School Varsity | 3 | 1.30 | Camille Mcgriff / Liam Bishop Max Morgan / Nathan Valentine Forrest Pearson / Caleb Milham | 25% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ocean Springs High School | 2.61 | 5.61 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| 3 | St. Stanislaus | 2.77 | 1.87 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.90 | 0.3 | 89% |
| 5 | Fairhope High School | 1.30 | -1.70 | 0–4 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley (Crew) Stanley | Ocean Springs High School | 1.37 | 4.37 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Matthew Demboski | Ocean Springs High School | 0.48 | 3.48 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Nick Gault | Ocean Springs High School | 0.50 | 3.50 | 4–0 | 2.3 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 10% |
| Tomas Braly | St. Stanislaus | 0.35 | -0.54 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.90 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Thomas Weber | St. Stanislaus | 0.46 | -0.44 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.90 | 0.3 | 89% |
| Max Morgan | Fairhope High School | 0.11 | -2.89 | 0–4 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Forrest Pearson | Fairhope High School | 0.17 | -2.83 | 0–4 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | St. Stanislaus | Fairhope High School | 76% | |
| 1 | 5 | Ocean Springs High School | St. Stanislaus | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Ocean Springs High School | Fairhope High School | 74% | |
| 2 | 13 | St. Stanislaus | Fairhope High School | 76% | |
| 2 | 15 | Ocean Springs High School | St. Stanislaus | 45% | upset |
| 2 | 18 | Ocean Springs High School | Fairhope High School | 74% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ocean Springs High School | Varsity | Matthew Demboski '17 Nick Gault '17 Wesley (Crew) Stanley '16 |
Haley Baker '17 Jake Freeman '16 Caden Bradshaw '19 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Varsity | Boyd Housey '18 Thomas Weber '18 Tomas Braly '15 |
Charles Breath '18 Tyler Trapani '16 Avery Cerniglia '16 |
|
Fairhope High School | Varsity | Camille Mcgriff '18 Forrest Pearson '16 Max Morgan '18 |
Liam Bishop '19 Caleb Milham '17 Nathan Valentine '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
