St. Stanislaus '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78 (fleet 2.87) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–5 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 2–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (6 matches) the record is 3–3 against 2.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-24 | 2016 SEISA District Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.75 | 2.76 | 3–3 | 2.3 | +1.02 | 0.4 | 42% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi High School Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | C | 18 | 1.6 | 2.77 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| 2016 SEISA District Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 1.27 |
| 2016 SEISA District Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Oaks Green Div | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.6 | 1.26 |
| Gold Division Great Oaks 2015 | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 0.62 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Skipper | A | 23 | 2.6 | 1.90 |
| 2015 Mississippi Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Boyd Housey |  Georgetown University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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