| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Ocean Springs High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,859 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 18 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.110 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.52 ± 0.52: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 6.72 school −0.24 | Dane Byerly / Laura Masterson 2.92 Wiley Rogers / Hunter Skinner Nathan Zittrer / Julia Sheaffer | 95% | 9–0 (100%) | +0.4 |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 2 | 3.36 school −0.11 | Tayler Trapani / Tyler Trapani Charles Breath / Frederick Cabell Boyd Housey / Lauryn Kidd 1.75 3–3 Thomas Weber / Hanna Dawley 0.56 3–0 | 57% | 6–3 (67%) | +0.9 |
| 3 | Ocean Springs High School Varsity | 3 | 2.87 school +0.26 | Matthew Demboski / Danielle Zwerg 0.68 Haley Baker / Samantha Hammond Nick Gault / Chase Hughes 0.66 | 44% | 3–6 (33%) | −1.0 |
| 4 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 4 | -1.05 | Sofia Giordano / Ally Haley Alana Austin / Elizabeth Squires Delaney Ligori / Tylar Warren | 4% | 0–9 (0%) | −0.3 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 6.72 | 9.72 | 9–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| 2 | St. Stanislaus | 3.36 | 4.49 | 6–3 | 5.1 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 36% |
| 3 | Ocean Springs High School | 2.87 | 1.29 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 0.9 | 96% |
| 4 | Ursuline Academy | -1.05 | -4.05 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Zittrer | Clear Falls High School | 0.89 | 3.89 | 9–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 64% |
| Thomas Weber | St. Stanislaus | 0.56 | 3.56 | 3–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Tayler Trapani | St. Stanislaus | 0.78 | 1.90 | 6–3 | 5.1 | +1.13 | 0.6 | 36% |
| Matthew Demboski | Ocean Springs High School | 0.68 | -0.90 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Haley Baker | Ocean Springs High School | 0.92 | -0.66 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Nick Gault | Ocean Springs High School | 0.66 | -0.92 | 3–6 | 4.0 | −1.58 | 0.9 | 96% |
| Alana Austin | Ursuline Academy | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Delaney Ligori | Ursuline Academy | -0.52 | -3.52 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Stanislaus | Ocean Springs High School | 67% | |
| 1 | 2 | Clear Falls High School | Ursuline Academy | 100% | |
| 1 | 3 | Clear Falls High School | St. Stanislaus | 91% | |
| 1 | 4 | Ocean Springs High School | Ursuline Academy | 96% | |
| 1 | 5 | Clear Falls High School | Ocean Springs High School | 95% | |
| 1 | 6 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 94% | |
| 2 | 7 | St. Stanislaus | Ocean Springs High School | 67% | |
| 2 | 8 | Clear Falls High School | Ursuline Academy | 100% | |
| 2 | 9 | Clear Falls High School | St. Stanislaus | 91% | |
| 2 | 10 | Ocean Springs High School | Ursuline Academy | 95% | |
| 2 | 11 | Clear Falls High School | Ocean Springs High School | 95% | |
| 2 | 12 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 94% | |
| 3 | 13 | St. Stanislaus | Ocean Springs High School | 67% | |
| 3 | 14 | Clear Falls High School | Ursuline Academy | 100% | |
| 3 | 15 | Clear Falls High School | St. Stanislaus | 91% | |
| 3 | 16 | Ocean Springs High School | Ursuline Academy | 95% | |
| 3 | 17 | Clear Falls High School | Ocean Springs High School | 95% | |
| 3 | 18 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 94% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Lions | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Knights | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Dane Byerly '16 Nathan Zittrer '19 Wiley Rogers '18 |
Laura Masterson '16 Julia Sheaffer '18 Hunter Skinner '16 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Boyd Housey '18 Charles Breath '18 Tayler Trapani '16 Thomas Weber '18 |
Lauryn Kidd '17 Frederick Cabell '19 Tyler Trapani '16 Hanna Dawley '19 |
|
Ocean Springs High School | Varsity | Haley Baker '17 Matthew Demboski '17 Nick Gault '17 |
Samantha Hammond '18 Danielle Zwerg '19 Chase Hughes '17 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Alana Austin '17 Delaney Ligori '18 Sofia Giordano '16 |
Elizabeth Squires '18 Tylar Warren '18 Ally Haley '18 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
