Ursuline Academy '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.31 (fleet -0.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–23 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 0–14 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 0–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 0–23 against 0.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-02 | SEISA Team Race Championship | skipper | -0.13 | -3.13 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2017-03-26 | MS High School Team Racing Championship | skipper | -0.23 | -3.23 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| 2016-04-24 | 2016 SEISA District Team Race Championship | skipper | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–9 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 6 | 0% | — |
| SEISA Double-Handed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | -1.08 |
| NOYC High School Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | -0.23 |
| MS High School Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Allstate Sugar Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.8 | -1.29 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi State Team Racing Championships | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| 2016 SEISA District Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.0 | -0.94 |
| 2016 SEISA District Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| SEISA Doublehanded Championship | Crew | A | 9 | 6.1 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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