| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 6–2 |
| 2 |  |
Gulfport High School | Varsity | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Fairhope High School | Varsity | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,742 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 20 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.471 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.25 ± 0.59: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays | 3 | 2.78 school −0.18 | Michael Haupt / Daniel Leithman 1.01 Robert Argote / Reece Deboisblanc Miller Goldenberg / Connor Housey | 55% | 6–2 (75%) | +1.6 |
| 2 | Gulfport High School Varsity | 4 | 2.65 | Dawson Doucet / Louis Doucet Crockett Collier / Court Salloum Thomas Pfaff / Martha Ellis Omara | 54% | 5–3 (62%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws | 1 | 3.72 | Michael Burns / Frederick Cabell Charles Breath / Hanna Dawley 1.19 3–3 Thomas Duffy / Joel Grumme 3–3 Charles Breath / Wallace St. Paul 1.14 2–0 Joshua Grumme / Joel Grumme 2–0 | 76% | 5–3 (62%) | −1.1 |
| 4 | Fairhope High School Varsity | 2 | 2.99 school −0.11 | Pete Mcgriff / Parker Fench Max Morgan / Brockton Norris 0.88 Logan Moran / Truitt Williams | 60% | 4–4 (50%) | −0.8 |
| 5 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 5 | -0.96 | Alana Austin / Kennedy Cooper -0.23 Delaney Ligori / Tylar Warren -0.32 Riley Reech / Corinne Martin | 5% | 0–8 (0%) | −0.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 2.78 | 4.17 | 6–2 | 4.4 | +1.39 | 1.2 | 19% |
| 2 | Gulfport High School | 2.65 | 3.24 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 43% |
| 4 | Fairhope High School | 2.99 | 2.30 | 4–4 | 4.8 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 3 | St. Stanislaus | 3.72 | 2.77 | 5–3 | 6.1 | −0.95 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 5 | Ursuline Academy | -0.96 | -3.96 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Haupt | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 1.01 | 2.40 | 6–2 | 4.4 | +1.39 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Robert Argote | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.77 | 2.16 | 6–2 | 4.4 | +1.39 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Miller Goldenberg | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.93 | 2.32 | 6–2 | 4.4 | +1.39 | 1.2 | 19% |
| Dawson Doucet | Gulfport High School | 1.06 | 1.65 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Crockett Collier | Gulfport High School | 0.36 | 0.95 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Thomas Pfaff | Gulfport High School | 0.88 | 1.47 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Max Morgan | Fairhope High School | 0.88 | 0.20 | 4–4 | 4.8 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Logan Moran | Fairhope High School | 0.47 | -0.21 | 4–4 | 4.8 | −0.68 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Thomas Duffy | St. Stanislaus | 0.60 | -0.48 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −1.08 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Alana Austin | Ursuline Academy | -0.23 | -3.23 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Delaney Ligori | Ursuline Academy | -0.32 | -3.32 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Riley Reech | Ursuline Academy | -0.58 | -3.58 | 0–8 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 DSQ,DSQ |
| 6 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DSQ |
| 12 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 DSQ |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 DSQ | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Lions | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | Michael Haupt '17 Miller Goldenberg '19 Robert Argote '18 |
Daniel Leithman '17 Connor Housey '17 Reece Deboisblanc '20 |
|
Gulfport High School | Varsity | Crockett Collier '21 Dawson Doucet '18 Thomas Pfaff '18 |
Court Salloum '26 Louis Doucet '20 Martha Ellis Omara '21 |
|
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | Charles Breath '18 Joshua Grumme '20 Michael Burns '21 Thomas Duffy '21 |
Hanna Dawley '19 Wallace St. Paul '21 Joel Grumme '21 Frederick Cabell '19 |
|
Fairhope High School | Varsity | Logan Moran '23 Max Morgan '18 Pete Mcgriff '20 |
Truitt Williams '19 Brockton Norris '24 Parker Fench '22 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Alana Austin '17 Delaney Ligori '18 Riley Reech '20 |
Kennedy Cooper '20 Tylar Warren '18 Corinne Martin '20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
