Gulfport High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 (fleet 0.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–3 (25%) as crew 5–3 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 5–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 6–6 against 6.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-10 | Mississippi Team Racing Championship | skipper | 0.70 | -2.43 | 1–3 | 2.6 | −3.14 | 2.6 | >99% |
| 2017-03-26 | MS High School Team Racing Championship | crew | 1.06 | 1.65 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MS High School Team Racing Championship | Crew | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Mississippi High School Fleet Racing Championship | Skipper | B | 17 | 4.0 | 0.52 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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