| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Stanislaus | Rock-A-Chaws | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Patrick Catholic High School | Fighting Irish | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Jesuit High School, NOLA | Blue Jays | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Gulfport High School | Admirals | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Ocean Springs High School | Varsity | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,992 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 15 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.464 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.19 ± 0.70: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Stanislaus | 3.16 | 6.16 | 5–0 | 3.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 16% |
| 2 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 2.32 | 4.24 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.93 | 1.4 | 19% |
| 3 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 2.13 | 2.87 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 4 | Gulfport High School | 2.76 | 1.35 | 2–3 | 3.0 | −1.41 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 5 | Ocean Springs High School | 2.18 | -0.52 | 1–4 | 3.0 | −2.70 | 2.8 | 99% |
| 6 | Ursuline Academy | -0.94 | -3.94 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Diaz | St. Stanislaus | 0.54 | 3.54 | 4–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| James Edwards | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.66 | 2.59 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.93 | 1.4 | 19% |
| Mallory Edwards | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.80 | 2.73 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.93 | 1.4 | 19% |
| Clayton Stoddard | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 0.65 | 2.57 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.93 | 1.4 | 19% |
| Robert Argote | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.87 | 1.61 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Miller Goldenberg | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.89 | 1.62 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 46% |
| Aiden Keister | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 0.15 | 0.88 | 3–2 | 2.4 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 46% |
| No Show | Ocean Springs High School | 0.65 | -1.80 | 1–3 | 2.5 | −2.45 | 1.9 | 99% |
| Danielle Zwerg | Ocean Springs High School | 0.65 | -2.06 | 1–4 | 3.0 | −2.70 | 2.8 | 99% |
| William O'Connor | Ocean Springs High School | 0.65 | -2.06 | 1–4 | 3.0 | −2.70 | 2.8 | 99% |
| Delaney Ligori | Ursuline Academy | -0.14 | -3.14 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Tylar Warren | Ursuline Academy | -0.30 | -3.30 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Riley Reech | Ursuline Academy | -0.37 | -3.37 | 0–5 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Dawson Doucet | Gulfport High School | 1.63 | -1.51 | 1–3 | 2.6 | −3.14 | 2.6 | >99% |
| Crockett Collier | Gulfport High School | 0.40 | -2.74 | 1–3 | 2.6 | −3.14 | 2.6 | >99% |
| Louis Doucet | Gulfport High School | 0.70 | -2.43 | 1–3 | 2.6 | −3.14 | 2.6 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | St. Stanislaus | Gulfport High School | 62% | |
| 1 | 2 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 53% | |
| 1 | 3 | Ocean Springs High School | Ursuline Academy | 90% | |
| 1 | 4 | St. Stanislaus | St. Patrick Catholic High School | 74% | |
| 1 | 5 | Gulfport High School | Ocean Springs High School | 44% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | Ursuline Academy | 91% | |
| 1 | 7 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | Ocean Springs High School | 52% | |
| 1 | 8 | St. Stanislaus | Jesuit High School, NOLA | 78% | |
| 1 | 9 | Gulfport High School | Ursuline Academy | 96% | |
| 1 | 10 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | Ocean Springs High School | 49% | upset |
| 1 | 11 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | Gulfport High School | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | St. Stanislaus | Ursuline Academy | 95% | |
| 1 | 13 | Jesuit High School, NOLA | Gulfport High School | 35% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | St. Stanislaus | Ocean Springs High School | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 15 | St. Patrick Catholic High School | Ursuline Academy | 92% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 DNF,DNS | def. | |
Lions | 2-3-5 DNF,DNF,DNF |
| 4 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Fighting Irish | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 6 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 8 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Jays | 4-5-6 DSQ |
| 9 | |
Admirals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Blue Jays | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 11 | |
Fighting Irish | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Blue Jays | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Admirals | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Rock-A-Chaws | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 15 | |
Fighting Irish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 2-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
