| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Clear Falls High School | Knights | 6–0 |
| 2 |  |
Fairhope High School | Varsity | 3–3 |
| 3 |  |
Ursuline Academy | Lions | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,832 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 9 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.073 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School Knights | 1 | 5.72 school +0.14 | Dutch Byerly / Matthew Morrell Asher Zittrer / Philip Adams Julia Sheaffer / Drake Tierney | 91% | 6–0 (100%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Fairhope High School Varsity | 2 | 3.72 school −0.24 | Pete Mcgriff / Liam Bishop 1.59 Camille Mcgriff / Truitt Williams 1.33 Max Morgan / Nathan Valentine 0.97 | 57% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.4 |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy Lions | 3 | -0.93 school −0.08 | Alana Austin / Kennedy Cooper -0.13 Delaney Ligori / Corinne Martin -0.31 Riley Reech / Kaitlin Daly -0.49 | 2% | 0–6 (0%) | −0.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clear Falls High School | 5.72 | 8.72 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | Fairhope High School | 3.72 | 2.41 | 3–3 | 3.4 | −1.31 | 0.3 | 96% |
| 3 | Ursuline Academy | -0.93 | -3.93 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asher Zittrer | Clear Falls High School | 2.08 | 5.08 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| Julia Sheaffer | Clear Falls High School | 1.64 | 4.64 | 6–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 56% |
| Max Morgan | Fairhope High School | 0.97 | -0.35 | 3–3 | 3.4 | −1.31 | 0.3 | 96% |
| Alana Austin | Ursuline Academy | -0.13 | -3.13 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Delaney Ligori | Ursuline Academy | -0.31 | -3.31 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Riley Reech | Ursuline Academy | -0.49 | -3.49 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Knights | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Knights | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Lions | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Clear Falls High School | Knights | Asher Zittrer '19 Dutch Byerly '20 Julia Sheaffer '18 |
Philip Adams '18 Matthew Morrell '20 Drake Tierney '18 |
|
Fairhope High School | Varsity | Camille Mcgriff '18 Max Morgan '18 Pete Mcgriff '20 |
Truitt Williams '19 Nathan Valentine '19 Liam Bishop '19 |
|
Ursuline Academy | Lions | Alana Austin '17 Delaney Ligori '18 Riley Reech '20 |
Kennedy Cooper '20 Corinne Martin '20 Kaitlin Daly '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
