MISSA West Mallory Pre-Qualifier

HostPewaukee Yacht Club
Date04/11/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Skippers	Skippers	42	19	61
2	Raccoons	Raccoons	61	43	104
3	Warhawks	Warhawks	65	47	112
4	Blue	Blue	68	54	122
5	Varsity	Varsity	62	97	159
6	Varsity	Varsity	70	91	161
7	Zephyrs	Zephyrs	99	80	179
8	Varsity	Varsity	98	82	180
9	Varsity	Varsity	81	113	194
10	Bears	Bears	91	106	197
11	Varsity	Varsity	132	80	212
12	Varsity	Varsity	72	141	213
13	Varsity	Varsity	151	143	294

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Skippers	Skippers	4	6	7	1	6	3	1	7	2	2	1	2	42
Raccoons	Raccoons	7	4	2	6	7	2	4	3	6	6	11	3	61
Varsity	Varsity	1	1	1	3	9	11	3	2	9	7	7	8	62
Warhawks	Warhawks	6	10	8	2	8	4	5	1	8	4	5	4	65
Blue	Blue	2	2	6	5	3	9	10	4	5	10	2	10	68
Varsity	Varsity	9	5	4	9	4	12	9	9	1	1	6	1	70
Varsity	Varsity	12	3	5	7	1	7	2	6	7	5	12	5	72
Varsity	Varsity	10	11	3	4	11	6	7	5	3	3	9	9	81
Bears	Bears	3	7	10	10	10	1	8	11	4	11	10	6	91
Varsity	Varsity	8	9	11	8	5	8	6	10	10	8	3	12	98
Zephyrs	Zephyrs	5	8	9	11	2	10	11	8	11	9	8	7	99
Varsity	Varsity	13	12	12	13	13	5	13	12	12	12	4	11	132
Varsity	Varsity	11	13	13	12	12	13	12	13	13	13	13	13	151

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Skippers	Skippers	1	1	1	1	3	1	3	1	2	2	2	1	19
Raccoons	Raccoons	8	2	3	2	6	5	7	3	1	1	1	4	43
Warhawks	Warhawks	5	3	2	6	1	2	4	7	4	3	5	5	47
Blue	Blue	3	7	10	7	4	6	1	4	3	4	3	2	54
Varsity	Varsity	2	4	4	4	9	8	5	5	8	13	10	8	80
Zephyrs	Zephyrs	6	12	13	8	2	4	2	2	5	8	9	9	80
Varsity	Varsity	4	6	11	9	5	10	11	8	6	5	4	3	82
Varsity	Varsity	12	5	7	10	8	3	10	11	7	6	6	6	91
Varsity	Varsity	9	9	5	3	10	9	9	9	11	9	7	7	97
Bears	Bears	11	8	9	5	7	7	8	10	10	7	13	11	106
Varsity	Varsity	7	11	6	11	11	11	6	6	DNF	12	8	10	113
Varsity	Varsity	13	13	8	12	12	12	13	13	9	11	11	DNS	141
Varsity	Varsity	10	10	12	13	13	13	12	12	12	10	12	DNF	143

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.200+0.20

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Warhawks Warhawks	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Varsity Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Varsity Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Varsity Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1
Varsity Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2
Zephyrs Zephyrs	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3
Skippers Skippers	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4
Raccoons Raccoons	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5
Varsity Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6
Varsity Varsity	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Varsity Varsity	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Blue Blue	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Bears Bears	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Warhawks Warhawks	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Varsity Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Varsity Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1
Varsity Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2
Varsity Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3
Zephyrs Zephyrs	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4
Skippers Skippers	8	8	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5
Raccoons Raccoons	9	9	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6
Varsity Varsity	10	10	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Varsity Varsity	11	11	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Varsity Varsity	12	12	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Blue Blue	13	13	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Bears Bears	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11

Conditions — 04/11/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1022.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 6.2 kn

Gusts to 15.7 kn

From WSW (251°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1022.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Pewaukee Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Pewaukee Yacht Club in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pewaukee Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Pewaukee Yacht Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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