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MN Conference Regatta #4 Calhoun

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 1 23 10 33
2 Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 35 22 57
3 Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity 27 48 75
4 Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 46 58 104
5 Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 65 39 104
6 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 2 34 79 113
7 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 71 50 121
8 Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 3 66 64 130
9 Blake School Blake School Bears 72 MRP 59 MRP 131 MRP
10 Hudson Hudson Raiders 76 99 175
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 3 7 3 23 Jack Erickson '17
Lizzie Easter '15
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity 3 2 3 1 1 2 8 3 4 27 Jason Davis '17
Lachlan Anders-Macleod '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 2 9 4 4 2 4 3 2 5 1 34 Tate Nolte '16
Gabrielle Ritacco '18
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 7 5 1 4 6 8 1 1 2 35 Brian Olson '18
Joe Sanderson '18
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 2 3 5 8 9 5 5 4 5 46 No Show
No Show
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 8 6 7 5 7 7 7 9 9 65 Claire Christianson '18
No Show
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 3 10 7 6 10 3 6 10 6 8 66 Tate Nolte '16
Lizzie Easter '15
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 8 9 9 5 10 9 10 7 71 Rita Usmanov '19
Stratford Vandlik '18
Blake School Blake School Bears 5 9 8 6 8 4 4 2 6 72 MRP Annika Ekholm '16
Caitlin Mccandler '15
Hudson Hudson Raiders 6 10 10 7 10 9 6 8 10 76 Adam Tronnes '20
Oscar Nemitz '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 Maddison Mott '17
Rachel Syring '17
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Varsity 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 6 2 22 Leigh Marker '17
Steve Franklin '18
Providence Academy Providence Academy Varsity 3 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 5 39 Eleanor Christianson '19
Ella Brunsman '16
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Varsity 6 4 5 8 4 7 5 3 6 48 Foss Kerker '17
Frank Heaney '16
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 8 2 4 4 6 8 6 8 4 50 Henry Westlund '19 [1-4]
Charlie Dutton '19 [5-9]
Charlie Dutton '19 [1-3]
Alexander Witcraft '18 [4-9]
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School Varsity 5 5 8 9 8 5 8 7 3 58 Ryne Ryshavy '17
Lucas Haarstad '17
Blake School Blake School Bears 4 6 3 3 3 4 4 5 7 59 MRP Cole Woerner '18
Andrew Larson '15
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 3 7 8 DNF 6 7 6 7 4 8 64 Jack Erickson '17
Tighe Case '18
Washburn High School Washburn High School Varsity 2 9 9 7 7 9 9 DNF 9 9 79 Tighe Case '18
Tate Nolte '16
Hudson Hudson Raiders DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 99 Adam Tronnes '20
Oscar Nemitz '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Blake SchoolBlake School Bears151515151515151515
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity444444444
HudsonHudson Raiders131313131313131313
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers111111111
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity191919191919191919
Southwest Senior High SchoolSouthwest Senior High School Varsity121212121212121212
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity232323232323232323
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 1111111111111111111
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 2222222222
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 3212121212121212121

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Blake SchoolBlake School Bears151515151515151515
Chanhassen High SchoolChanhassen High School Varsity444444444
HudsonHudson Raiders131313131313131313
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers111111111
Providence AcademyProvidence Academy Varsity191919191919191919
Southwest Senior High SchoolSouthwest Senior High School Varsity121212121212121212
Stillwater High SchoolStillwater High School Varsity232323232323232323
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 1111111111111111111
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 2222222222
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Varsity 3212121212121212121
School / Team SkipperCrew
Blake School Blake School Annika Ekholm '16 Caitlin Mccandler '15
Bears Cole Woerner '18 Andrew Larson '15
Chanhassen High School Chanhassen High School No Show No Show
Varsity Ryne Ryshavy '17 Lucas Haarstad '17
Hudson Hudson Adam Tronnes '20 Oscar Nemitz '20
Raiders Adam Tronnes '20 Oscar Nemitz '20
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Rita Usmanov '19 Stratford Vandlik '18
Skippers Henry Westlund '19 [1-4]
Charlie Dutton '19 [5-9]		 Charlie Dutton '19 [1-3]
Alexander Witcraft '18 [4-9]
Providence Academy Providence Academy Claire Christianson '18 No Show
Varsity Eleanor Christianson '19 Ella Brunsman '16
Southwest Senior High School Southwest Senior High School Jason Davis '17 Lachlan Anders-Macleod '17
Varsity Foss Kerker '17 Frank Heaney '16
Stillwater High School Stillwater High School Brian Olson '18 Joe Sanderson '18
Varsity Leigh Marker '17 Steve Franklin '18
Washburn High School Washburn High School Jack Erickson '17 Lizzie Easter '15
Varsity 1 Maddison Mott '17 Rachel Syring '17
Washburn High School Washburn High School Tate Nolte '16 Gabrielle Ritacco '18
Varsity 2 Tighe Case '18 Tate Nolte '16
Washburn High School Washburn High School Tate Nolte '16 Lizzie Easter '15
Varsity 3 Jack Erickson '17 Tighe Case '18

Conditions — 05/02/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1010.4 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From S (190°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1010.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 3 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Minnetonka: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnetonka by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Minnetonka, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →