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NJISA 2015 Spring Championship

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 39 22 61
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 35 35 70
3 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 21 63 84
4 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 43 44 87
5 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 40 48 88
6 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 53 63 116
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 59 60 119
8 Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 86 36 122
9 Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 80 82 162
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 96 100 196
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 3 1 1 2 6 1 2 1 2 2 21 Sean Crabb '16
James Koerner '17
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 4 2 3 2 2 4 7 4 6 35 Emily Haig '17 [1-10]
Paul Reiff '17 [1-2]
Michael Scales '16 [3-4]
Rachel Lange '17 [5-10]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 7 3 6 4 3 1 3 1 9 39 Joe Laforgia '17 [1-10]
Connor Foor '15 [1-2]
Chris Magno '17 [3-6]
Mark Iorio '16 [7-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 8 3 5 1 1 6 7 5 3 1 40 Michael Munger '16 [1-10]
Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-6, 9-10]
Francesco Sgroi '16 [7-8]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 7 2 6 4 3 5 3 4 5 4 43 Matt Roleke '15 [1-10]
Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4]
Joey Cashman '18 [5-10]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 4 6 4 7 8 4 5 2 6 7 53 Erin Mcgarry '17
Maureen Mcgarry '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 7 5 5 8 8 6 7 3 59 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-10]
Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Juliana Rustum '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 9 8 9 9 7 7 9 9 8 5 80 Jack Ruggiero '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kate Malcolmn '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Miles Mancini '16 [1-2]
Rachel Beaton '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Julius Brandt '16 [5-6]
Nina Colagiovanni '17 [9-10]
Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 10 9 8 10 9 9 6 8 9 8 86 Harrison Barfield '17 [1-6]
Ashley Dart '17 [7-10]
Take Numata '15 [1-6]
Harrison Barfield '17 [7-10]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 6 10 10 8 10 10 10 10 DNS DNS 96 Victoria Tang '15 [1-4]
Kyle Simandy '18 [5-10]
Kyle Simandy '18 [1-4]
Victoria Tang '15 [5-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 2 1 6 1 2 1 3 3 1 22 Trevor Koerwer '15
Kyle Lavin '15
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 6 1 4 5 3 7 2 1 4 2 35 Jake Ellis '15 [1-4]
Dana Haig '18 [5-10]
Lauren Beattie '15 [1-2]
Michael Scales '16 [3-4]
Jake Ellis '15 [5-10]
Princeton High School Princeton High School Little Tigers 5 3 2 4 5 4 3 2 2 6 36 Nathan Drezner '16 [1-10]
Ashley Dart '17 [1-6]
Sophie Corrodi '16 [7-10]
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 3 4 9 2 2 1 4 4 7 8 44 Katie Oksen '15 [1-10]
Willow Wahlers '17 [1-4]
Lauren Zelenak '17 [5-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 5 5 1 4 DNF 7 8 1 5 48 Jack Scott '18 [1-10]
Marcello Sgroi '16 [1-2, 7-10]
Connor Demcsak '18 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 6 6 9 6 5 5 6 6 4 60 Kieran Sweeney '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kk Newsham '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 4 7 8 3 7 3 9 7 8 7 63 Regina Vahey '18
Marissa Porcellini '15
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 8 10 3 7 8 6 8 5 5 3 63 Eddie Harrison '18
Mia Porter '18
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 9 8 7 8 9 8 6 9 9 9 82 Sophie Ruggiero '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Abigail Wagner '18 [5-8]
Samantha Hamilton '15 [1-4, 9-10]
Blake Biundo '18 [5-8]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 10 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 DNS DNS 100 Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Bryan Cardenas '15 [5-10]
Bryan Cardenas '15 [1-4]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [5-10]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts991010111112121313
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins10101111121213131414
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers11111212131314141515
Point Pleasant Beach High SchoolPoint Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls12121313141415151616
Princeton High SchoolPrinceton High School Little Tigers13131414151516161717
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs14141515161617171818
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams151516161717181899
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers161617171818991010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners171718189910101111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians181899101011111212

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts991010111112121313
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins10101111121213131414
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers11111212131314141515
Point Pleasant Beach High SchoolPoint Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls12121313141415151616
Princeton High SchoolPrinceton High School Little Tigers13131414151516161717
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs14141515161617171818
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams151516161717181899
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers161617171818991010
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners171718189910101111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians181899101011111212
School / Team SkipperCrew
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Joe Laforgia '17 [1-10] Connor Foor '15 [1-2]
Chris Magno '17 [3-6]
Mark Iorio '16 [7-10]
Colts Trevor Koerwer '15 Kyle Lavin '15
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Griffins Regina Vahey '18 Marissa Porcellini '15
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Victoria Tang '15 [1-4]
Kyle Simandy '18 [5-10]		 Kyle Simandy '18 [1-4]
Victoria Tang '15 [5-10]
Panthers Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [1-4]
Bryan Cardenas '15 [5-10]		 Bryan Cardenas '15 [1-4]
Sabrina Gonzalez '17 [5-10]
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Jack Ruggiero '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kate Malcolmn '16 [3-4, 7-8]		 Miles Mancini '16 [1-2]
Rachel Beaton '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Julius Brandt '16 [5-6]
Nina Colagiovanni '17 [9-10]
Garnett Gulls Sophie Ruggiero '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Abigail Wagner '18 [5-8]		 Samantha Hamilton '15 [1-4, 9-10]
Blake Biundo '18 [5-8]
Princeton High School Princeton High School Harrison Barfield '17 [1-6]
Ashley Dart '17 [7-10]		 Take Numata '15 [1-6]
Harrison Barfield '17 [7-10]
Little Tigers Nathan Drezner '16 [1-10] Ashley Dart '17 [1-6]
Sophie Corrodi '16 [7-10]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Michael Munger '16 [1-10] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-6, 9-10]
Francesco Sgroi '16 [7-8]
Bulldogs Jack Scott '18 [1-10] Marcello Sgroi '16 [1-2, 7-10]
Connor Demcsak '18 [3-6]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Emily Haig '17 [1-10] Paul Reiff '17 [1-2]
Michael Scales '16 [3-4]
Rachel Lange '17 [5-10]
Rams Jake Ellis '15 [1-4]
Dana Haig '18 [5-10]		 Lauren Beattie '15 [1-2]
Michael Scales '16 [3-4]
Jake Ellis '15 [5-10]
Summit High School Summit High School Thomas Quinn '18 [1-10] Sarah Elia '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Juliana Rustum '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Hilltoppers Kieran Sweeney '15 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kk Newsham '15 [3-4, 7-8]		 Danny Kane '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Toms River North Toms River North Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Mariners Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Toms River South Toms River South Matt Roleke '15 [1-10] Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4]
Joey Cashman '18 [5-10]
Indians Katie Oksen '15 [1-10] Willow Wahlers '17 [1-4]
Lauren Zelenak '17 [5-10]

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 48%  ·  Pressure 1011.0 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.0 kn
avg  ·  max 10.8 kn
Gusts to 21.6 kn
From NW (318°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1011.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Toms River South: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →