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2016 Stanford NorCal Invite

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Cubs Cubs Cubs 135
2 Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat 179
3 Alameda High School Alameda High School Varsity 194
4 Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors 231
5 Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats 247
6 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 282
7 Varsity Varsity Varsity 282
8 Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Varsity 297
9 Breakers Breakers Breakers 376
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT Sailors
Cubs Cubs Cubs A 2 4 1 3 8 3 13 3 5 5 8 3 2 60
Alameda High School Alameda High School Varsity B 5 5 3 16 2 1 5 10 3 2 6 8 1 67 Simon Boeger '19
Miles Orozco '16
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors A 3 1 4 10 1 4 7 5 9 3 15 4 5 71 Sally Wilmot '18 [1-13]
Devon Kurisu '19 [1-8]
Kai Otsmaa '17 [9-13]
Cubs Cubs Cubs B 1 2 7 2 15 12 4 8 6 6 2 2 8 75
Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats A 9 10 5 4 6 7 3 4 4 4 1 10 11 78 Alyson Crowley '16 [1-13]
Elise Lamarre '19 [1-6]
Forrest Strawbridge '19 [7-13]
Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat B 4 3 13 1 9 2 11 7 10 8 9 1 3 81 Matthew Wright '18
Jessica O'Neill '19
Woodside High School Woodside High School Wildcat A 11 12 10 5 7 9 6 1 2 7 12 9 7 98 Joseph Politi '18
Tyler Davis '18
Varsity Varsity Varsity B 7 6 11 12 5 5 1 13 7 12 3 12 4 98
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants A 10 9 2 8 11 14 9 2 1 1 11 15 6 99 Chloe Holder '19
Madeline Stull '19
Alameda High School Alameda High School Varsity A 8 8 9 9 3 17 14 9 13 10 4 13 10 127 Drake Hayes '17
Liam Orozco '19
Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Varsity A 6 17 14 11 4 8 18 11 14 18 7 5 9 142 Andrew Huang '18
Anthony Xie '19
Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Varsity B 15 16 6 7 10 15 16 15 8 13 16 6 12 155 Will Glasson '20
Jackson Clough '18
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors B 14 14 8 13 16 11 8 6 16 11 18 11 14 160 Daniel Erisman '19 [1-13]
Keon Honaryar '19 [1-10, 13]
Devon Kurisu '19 [11-12]
Marin Academy Marin Academy Wildcats B 12 11 16 6 12 13 10 14 15 16 13 18 13 169 Madeline Kuhn '16
Jack Lamarre '17
Breakers Breakers Breakers A 17 13 15 15 17 16 2 18 11 14 17 7 18 180
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants B 16 18 12 17 14 6 12 12 12 17 14 16 17 183 Ian Roddy '18
Kali Gibbs '18
Varsity Varsity Varsity A 13 7 18 14 18 10 15 16 18 15 10 14 16 184
Breakers Breakers Breakers B 18 15 17 18 13 18 17 17 17 9 5 17 15 196
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Varsity1111111111111
CubsCubs Cubs2222222222222
Marin AcademyMarin Academy Wildcats3333333333333
Miramonte High SchoolMiramonte High School Matadors4444444444444
Palo Alto HighPalo Alto High Varsity5555555555555
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants6666666666666
VarsityVarsity Varsity7777777777777
BreakersBreakers Breakers8888888888888
Woodside High SchoolWoodside High School Wildcat9999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Varsity10101010101010101010101010
CubsCubs Cubs11111111111111111111111111
Marin AcademyMarin Academy Wildcats12121212121212121212121212
Miramonte High SchoolMiramonte High School Matadors13131313131313131313131313
Palo Alto HighPalo Alto High Varsity14141414141414141414141414
Redwood High SchoolRedwood High School Giants15151515151515151515151515
VarsityVarsity Varsity16161616161616161616161616
BreakersBreakers Breakers17171717171717171717171717
Woodside High SchoolWoodside High School Wildcat18181818181818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Alameda High School Alameda High School Drake Hayes '17 Liam Orozco '19
Varsity Simon Boeger '19 Miles Orozco '16
Marin Academy Marin Academy Alyson Crowley '16 [1-13] Elise Lamarre '19 [1-6]
Forrest Strawbridge '19 [7-13]
Wildcats Madeline Kuhn '16 Jack Lamarre '17
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Sally Wilmot '18 [1-13] Devon Kurisu '19 [1-8]
Kai Otsmaa '17 [9-13]
Matadors Daniel Erisman '19 [1-13] Keon Honaryar '19 [1-10, 13]
Devon Kurisu '19 [11-12]
Palo Alto High Palo Alto High Andrew Huang '18 Anthony Xie '19
Varsity Will Glasson '20 Jackson Clough '18
Redwood High School Redwood High School Chloe Holder '19 Madeline Stull '19
Giants Ian Roddy '18 Kali Gibbs '18
Woodside High School Woodside High School Joseph Politi '18 Tyler Davis '18
Wildcat Matthew Wright '18 Jessica O'Neill '19

Conditions — 04/09/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1012.9 hPa Rain0.15 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Palo Alto High: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Palo Alto High by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Palo Alto High: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →