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Crossroads Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 5 5
2 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 11 11
3 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 3 23 23
4 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 1 25 25
5 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 2 28 28
6 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 5 30 30
7 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 6 31 31
8 South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 1 40 40
9 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 4 40 40
10 Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 2 42 42
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 1 1 1 1 1 5 Delaney Brown '16
Rylee Macarthur '17
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 3 2 2 2 2 11 Dylan Brazee '17 [1-2, 5]
Tommy Kilcourse '16 [3-4]
Tommy Kilcourse '16 [1-2, 5]
Dylan Brazee '17 [3-4]
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 3 4 6 5 4 4 23 Cody Lanier '19
No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 1 2 3 7 5 8 25 Nicholas Keller '17
No Show
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 2 5 7 6 3 7 28 Nathan Welmaker '20
Yazmeen Simpson '19
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 5 8 8 3 8 3 30 No Show
Alden Findley '17
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 6 10 5 4 6 6 31 Ryan Mcgoye '16
No Show
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 1 7 9 10 9 5 40 Emma Barska '19 [1-2, 5]
Griffin Pollis '19 [3-4]
Griffin Pollis '19 [1-2, 5]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4]
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 4 9 4 8 10 9 40 Devon Ellis '16
No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 2 6 10 9 7 10 42 Malea Terry '16
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.240+0.24
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons11223
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves221110
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 133445
South Fork High SchoolSouth Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 244332
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 155667
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 266554
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 377889
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 488776
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 59910101
Vero Beach High SchoolVero Beach High School Varsity 61010998
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons Dylan Brazee '17 [1-2, 5]
Tommy Kilcourse '16 [3-4]		 Tommy Kilcourse '16 [1-2, 5]
Dylan Brazee '17 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves Delaney Brown '16 Rylee Macarthur '17
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 1 Emma Barska '19 [1-2, 5]
Griffin Pollis '19 [3-4]		 Griffin Pollis '19 [1-2, 5]
Emma Barska '19 [3-4]
South Fork High School South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS 2 Nathan Welmaker '20 Yazmeen Simpson '19
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 1 Nicholas Keller '17 No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 2 Malea Terry '16 No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 3 Cody Lanier '19 No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 4 Devon Ellis '16 No Show
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 5 No Show Alden Findley '17
Vero Beach High School Vero Beach High School Varsity 6 Ryan Mcgoye '16 No Show

Conditions — 03/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 80°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.5 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From S (173°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine5.2 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.28 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.80 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Jensen Beach/Martin County/MOA/ Fort Pierce Wes/South Fork/The Pine: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →