Little Daddy NorCal #5 SILVER

HostBerkeley/Sir Francis Drake
Date04/02/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	7	7
2	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	19	19
3	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	34	34
4	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 2	47	47
5	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	48	48
6	Stevenson School	Varsity 2	56	56
7	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	60	60
8	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	69	69
9	Davis High School	Blue Devils	70	70
10	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	71	71
11	Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	71	71
12	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	72	72
13	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	76	76
14	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	78	78
15	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	81	81
16	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	82	82
17	The Urban School	Varsity	84	84
18	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	93	93
19	Cardinals	Cardinals	99	99
20	Berkeley High School	Varsity	111	111
21	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	116	116
22	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 1	118	118
23	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	125	125
24	Stevenson School	Varsity 1	143	143
25	Redwood High School	Giants	162	162
26	Branson School	Bulls	162	162

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	1	1	1	1	2	1	7	Jacob Kowalski '19 Taggart Bonham '16
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	4	5	2	3	3	2	19	Jeremy Gillespie '17 Micherice Tao '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	8	2	6	10	4	4	34	Quinn Donahue '16 Phoebe Klebahn '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 2	15	4	8	5	5	10	47	Carolyne Ikeda '19 Evelyn Plam '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	7	6	5	2	1	OCS	48	Griffin Chen '19 Emma Jones '18
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	DNF	9	3	6	6	5	56	Ian Smelser '17 Vic Sahni '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	5	11	13	19	9	3	60	Arthur Wechsler '18 [1, 3, 5] Aj Torres '19 [2, 4, 6] Aj Torres '19 [1, 3, 5] Arthur Wechsler '18 [2, 4, 6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	12	14	4	11	20	8	69	Emma Figueredo '19 Savanna Defjen-Creson '19
Davis High School	Blue Devils	11	13	12	12	13	9	70	James Locker '16 Erica Frederickson '20
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	3	8	15	14	19	12	71	Jade Greer '19 Sara Tamayo-Correa '18
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	13	3	11	17	11	16	71	Kiera Cullen '17 Emma Reynolds '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	6	22	7	9	7	21	72	William Hale '18 Reid Wishner '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	14	20	9	8	14	11	76	Noah Sanders '18 Devin Stewart '19
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	17	7	14	16	10	14	78	Andrew Zheng '19 Eric Hong '17
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	10	12	17	13	16	13	81	Paige Dunlevy '16 Zoe Shane '19
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	2	19	21	7	18	15	82	Amy Ely '16 Peter Melrose '16
The Urban School	Varsity	9	10	23	21	15	6	84	Hannah Schrank '19 Anna Krylova '20
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	DNF	15	18	18	8	7	93	Nolwenn Menard '19 Lorenzo Baldo '18
Cardinals	Cardinals	DNF	17	22	4	12	17	99
Berkeley High School	Varsity	20	18	16	22	17	18	111	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Rosie Ward '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	16	21	10	23	DNF	19	116	Ellis Webb '19 [1-6] Sean Engelbrechtin '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Lillian Rose-Wickman '19 [2, 4]
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 1	18	16	20	20	22	22	118	Mackenzie Berwick '18 Gabriella Schmidt '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	DNF	23	19	15	21	20	125	Alex Meislich '19 Jack Curphey '19
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	19	24	DSQ	OCS	23	23	143	Alan Peng '18 Susanna Yan '18
Redwood High School	Giants	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	162	Kali Gibbs '18 Michael Brandon '16
Branson School	Bulls	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNS	DNS	162	Andrew Fisher '19 Sari Wisoff '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Berkeley High School Varsity	60	60	60	60	60	60
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10
Davis High School Blue Devils	126	126	126	126	126	126
Half Moon Bay High School Cougars	138	138	138	138	138	138
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5
Cardinals Cardinals	72	72	72	72	72	72
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity	71	71	71	71	71	71
Lynbrook High School Vikings	27	27	27	27	27	27
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105
Redwood High School Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	1	1	1	1	1	1
Sir Francis Drake Varsity	67	67	67	67	67	67
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 1	3	3	3	3	3	3
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 2	4	4	4	4	4	4
Stevenson School Varsity 1	97	97	97	97	97	97
Stevenson School Varsity 2	99	99	99	99	99	99
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	140	140	140	140	140	140
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	139	139	139	139	139	139
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	134	134	134	134	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 4	133	133	133	133	133	133
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	81	81	81	81	81	81
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82
Branson School Bulls	999	999	999	999	999	999
The Urban School Varsity	141	141	141	141	141	141
Woodside Priory School Woodside Priory	28	28	28	28	28	28

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Berkeley High School	Varsity	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Rosie Ward '19
Branson School	Bulls	Andrew Fisher '19	Sari Wisoff '18
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	Paige Dunlevy '16	Zoe Shane '19
Davis High School	Blue Devils	James Locker '16	Erica Frederickson '20
Half Moon Bay High School	Cougars	Kiera Cullen '17	Emma Reynolds '16
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	Jade Greer '19	Sara Tamayo-Correa '18
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Quinn Donahue '16	Phoebe Klebahn '20
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	Nolwenn Menard '19	Lorenzo Baldo '18
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	Andrew Zheng '19	Eric Hong '17
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	Amy Ely '16	Peter Melrose '16
Redwood High School	Giants	Kali Gibbs '18	Michael Brandon '16
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	Jeremy Gillespie '17	Micherice Tao '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	Noah Sanders '18	Devin Stewart '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 1	Mackenzie Berwick '18	Gabriella Schmidt '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Varsity 2	Carolyne Ikeda '19	Evelyn Plam '19
Stevenson School	Varsity 1	Alan Peng '18	Susanna Yan '18
Stevenson School	Varsity 2	Ian Smelser '17	Vic Sahni '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Emma Figueredo '19	Savanna Defjen-Creson '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Griffin Chen '19	Emma Jones '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Ellis Webb '19 [1-6]	Sean Engelbrechtin '18 [1, 3, 5-6] Lillian Rose-Wickman '19 [2, 4]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 4	Alex Meislich '19	Jack Curphey '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	William Hale '18	Reid Wishner '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Arthur Wechsler '18 [1, 3, 5] Aj Torres '19 [2, 4, 6]	Aj Torres '19 [1, 3, 5] Arthur Wechsler '18 [2, 4, 6]
The Urban School	Varsity	Hannah Schrank '19	Anna Krylova '20
Woodside Priory School	Woodside Priory	Jacob Kowalski '19	Taggart Bonham '16

Conditions — 04/02/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 67°F ↓ 50°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.6 kn

avg · max 7.0 kn

Gusts to 16.5 kn

From W (274°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover32% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1021.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Berkeley/Sir Francis Drake: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.38 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Berkeley/Sir Francis Drake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Berkeley/Sir Francis Drake: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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