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NJISA Wed Series #1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 14 5 19
2 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 5 16 21
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 19 8 27
4 Mariners Mariners Mariners 7 24 31
5 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 13 18 31
6 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 19 18 37
7 Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 22 15 37
8 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 20 19 39
9 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 25 17 42
10 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 24 29 53
11 Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 34 31 65
12 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 32 34 66
13 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 39 39 78
14 Bucs Bucs Bucs 42 42 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 1 3 1 5 Emily Haig '17
Burke Flynn '18
Mariners Mariners Mariners 2 2 3 7
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 3 6 4 13 Regina Vahey '18
Maureen Mcgarry '17
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 11 1 2 14 Cameron Giblin '19
Ava Atanacio '18
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 4 9 6 19 Joe Laforgia '17
Chris Magno '17
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 5 5 9 19 Willow Wahlers '17 [1-2]
Joey Cashman '18 [3]
Alexa Carles '19 [1-2]
Tabitha Paul '19 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 8 7 5 20 Erin Mcgarry '17
Catherine Cooke '17
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 6 8 8 22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 9 4 11 24
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 7 11 7 25 Jp Burgess '16 [1-3]
Robert Maes '17 [1-2]
Ryan Mullins '19 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 10 10 12 32
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 12 12 10 34 Sophie Ruggiero '18
Rachel Beaton '17
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 13 13 13 39 Patience Harrington '17
Reilly Fitzgerald '18
Bucs Bucs Bucs 14 14 14 42
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 2 2 5 Luke Arnone '19
Mari Patient '17
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 1 1 8 Michael Ehnot '18
Mark Iorio '16
Bulldogs Bulldogs Bulldogs 5 3 7 15
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 2 5 9 16 Dana Haig '18
Paul Reiff '17
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 4 9 4 17 Garret Boyan '17
Justin Modin '19
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 3 10 5 18 Cole Banias '17
No Show
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 8 7 3 18 Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-3]
Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2]
Leo Krajewski '19 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 7 6 6 19 Margaret Maccormack '17
Alexis Tedesco '17
Mariners Mariners Mariners 9 4 11 24
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 10 11 8 29
Point Pleasant Beach High School Point Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls 11 8 12 31 Blake Biundo '18 [1-2]
Miya Preyer '19 [3]
Brielle Roberts '18 [1-2]
Emily Mcconnell '18 [3]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 12 12 10 34
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 13 13 13 39 Michnisky Thomas '16
Petry Gordon '17
Bucs Bucs Bucs 14 14 14 42
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.190+0.19
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles131313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2141414
Point Pleasant Beach High SchoolPoint Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls555
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers666
BucsBucs Bucs777
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs888
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2101010
MarinersMariners Mariners111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians121212

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles131313
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 1111
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 2222
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 3333
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 1444
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 2141414
Point Pleasant Beach High SchoolPoint Pleasant Beach High School Garnett Gulls555
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers666
BucsBucs Bucs777
BulldogsBulldogs Bulldogs888
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 1999
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 2101010
MarinersMariners Mariners111111
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians121212

Conditions — 03/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1010.2 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From ESE (103°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover91% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1010.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Toms River South: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Toms River South by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 10 labelled days at Toms River South, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →