NorCal Divisional #2 SILVER

HostRedwood
Date02/13/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	25	29	54
2	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	41	27	68
3	Aptos High School	Mariners	45	25	70
4	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	32	42	74
5	Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	46	42	88
6	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	56	43	99
7	Waldorf High School	Varsity	30	77	107
8	St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	108	11	119
9	Los Altos High	Eagles	13	108	121
10	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	108	28	136
11	Design Tech High School	d.tech	29	108	137
12	Everest	Everest	32	108	140
13	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	108	34	142
14	Envision Academy	EAST Panthers	72	82	154
15	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	108	62	170
16	The Urban School	Varsity	75	108	183
17	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	80 MRP	108	188 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Los Altos High	Eagles	1	1	1	1	2	7	13	Albert Zhao '19 Amir Tadros '19
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	7	2	5	6	3	2	25	Jeremy Gillespie '17 [1-4] Lily Cunningham '17 [5-6] Graham Gerrity '17 [1-4] Rachel Sherr '16 [5-6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech	4	6	3	8	7	1	29	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-6] Jonathan Fisher '17 [1-2, 5-6] Madelyn Blessinger '19 [3-4]
Waldorf High School	Varsity	2	8	8	3	5	4	30	Aidan Doyle '18 Lena Fisher '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	3	5	9	2	8	5	32	Joe Rico '18 Emma Jones '18
Everest	Everest	5	9	2	4	4	8	32	Derek Makovich '16 Jessica O'Neill '19
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	10	4	4	7	10	6	41	John Dilella '18 Zack Taylor '19
Aptos High School	Mariners	6	12	6	5	6	10	45	Flora Van Der Schoot '16 [1-6] Dana Foley '18 [1-4] Sam Bach '19 [5-6]
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	9	13	10	10	1	3	46	George Kripac '17 [1-6] Amber White '19 [1-4] Noelle Scheer '18 [5-6]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	8	7	12	9	11	9	56	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-6] Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1-4] Colin Ruppert '16 [5-6]
Envision Academy	EAST Panthers	13	10	11	12	13	13	72	Jack Neil '17 [1-6] Amanda Ceja '16 [1-4] Akira Rodgers '17 [5-6]
The Urban School	Varsity	12	3	DNS	DNS	12	12	75	Anna Krylova '20 [1, 3, 5] Cayley Crist '17 [2, 4, 6] Hannah Schrank '19 [1, 3, 5] Anna Krylova '20 [2, 4, 6]
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	11	11	7	11	9	11	80 MRP	No Show No Show
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	Varsity	1	1	2	4	1	2	11	Jack Larkin '18 Madeleine Roman '16
Aptos High School	Mariners	5	3	4	3	4	6	25	Isabel Andrew '16 Madeline Miller '16
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	3	2	9	6	2	5	27	Thomas Laskarzewski '18 Brennan O'Connell '18
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	9	6	3	1	5	4	28	Alex Pick '19 [1, 3, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [2, 4, 6] Sarah Cuyler '19 [1, 3, 5] Alex Pick '19 [2, 4, 6]
San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	7	7	1	5	8	1	29	Micherice Tao '19 [1-6] Rachel Sherr '16 [1-4] Graham Gerrity '17 [5-6]
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	4	10	5	9	3	3	34	Andrew Zheng '19 Michael Zheng '19
Sir Francis Drake	Varsity	2	5	10	8	7	10	42	Ryan Osier '18 [1-2] Noah Sanders '18 [3-6] Phoebe Kemp '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alexa Neely '19 [3-4]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	10	8	6	2	9	7	42	Fergus Campbell '18 [1-2, 5] Griffin Chen '19 [3-4, 6] Lillian Rose-Wickman '19 [1-2, 5] Emma Figueredo '19 [3-4] Nickolas Monrique '19 [6]
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Varsity	11	4	7	7	6	8	43	Jade Greer '19 [1-6] Colin Ruppert '16 [1-4] Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [5-6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	6	11	8	DNF	10	9	62	Joe De Hemptinne '19 Jack Curphey '19
Waldorf High School	Varsity	8	9	DNF	DNS	12	12	77	Phillip Platt '19 [1-4] Rebecca Thompson '16 [5-6] Sophie Miller '19 [1-4]
Envision Academy	EAST Panthers	12	12	DNF	DNF	11	11	82	Mar'Kayla Irvin '16 [1-2] Christine Brown '17 [3-6] Christine Brown '17 [1-2] Amanda Ceja '16 [3-6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	108	Tim Gee '20 Madelyn Blessinger '19
Los Altos High	Eagles	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
Everest	Everest	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
The Urban School	Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101	101
Design Tech High School d.tech	11	11	11	11	11	11
Envision Academy EAST Panthers	145	145	145	145	145	145
Everest Everest	139	139	139	139	139	139
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Los Altos High Eagles	79	79	79	79	79	79
Lynbrook High School Vikings	79	79	79	79	79	79
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	58	58	58	58	58	58
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA Varsity	139	139	139	139	139	139
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2
Sir Francis Drake Varsity	67	67	67	67	67	67
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	105	105	105	105	105	105
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	141	141	141	141	141	141
The Urban School Varsity	141	141	141	141	141	141
Waldorf High School Varsity	72	72	72	72	72	72

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101	101	101	101
Design Tech High School d.tech	11	11	11	11	11	11
Envision Academy EAST Panthers	145	145	145	145	145	145
Everest Everest	139	139	139	139	139	139
International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Los Altos High Eagles	79	79	79	79	79	79
Lynbrook High School Vikings	79	79	79	79	79	79
Monte Vista High School Mustangs	58	58	58	58	58	58
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA Varsity	139	139	139	139	139	139
San Francisco University High School Red Devils	2	2	2	2	2	2
Sir Francis Drake Varsity	67	67	67	67	67	67
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	105	105	105	105	105	105
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	141	141	141	141	141	141
The Urban School Varsity	141	141	141	141	141	141
Waldorf High School Varsity	72	72	72	72	72	72

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Aptos High School	Flora Van Der Schoot '16 [1-6]	Dana Foley '18 [1-4] Sam Bach '19 [5-6]
Mariners	Isabel Andrew '16	Madeline Miller '16
Design Tech High School	Jack Lugliani '18 [1-6]	Jonathan Fisher '17 [1-2, 5-6] Madelyn Blessinger '19 [3-4]
d.tech	Tim Gee '20	Madelyn Blessinger '19
Envision Academy	Jack Neil '17 [1-6]	Amanda Ceja '16 [1-4] Akira Rodgers '17 [5-6]
EAST Panthers	Mar'Kayla Irvin '16 [1-2] Christine Brown '17 [3-6]	Christine Brown '17 [1-2] Amanda Ceja '16 [3-6]
Everest	Derek Makovich '16	Jessica O'Neill '19
Everest	No Show	No Show
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-6]	Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [1-4] Colin Ruppert '16 [5-6]
Varsity	Jade Greer '19 [1-6]	Colin Ruppert '16 [1-4] Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 [5-6]
Los Altos High	Albert Zhao '19	Amir Tadros '19
Eagles	No Show	No Show
Lynbrook High School	No Show	No Show
Vikings	Andrew Zheng '19	Michael Zheng '19
Monte Vista Christian School	No Show	No Show
Monte Vista Mustangs	No Show	No Show
Monte Vista High School	John Dilella '18	Zack Taylor '19
Mustangs	Thomas Laskarzewski '18	Brennan O'Connell '18
San Francisco University High School	Jeremy Gillespie '17 [1-4] Lily Cunningham '17 [5-6]	Graham Gerrity '17 [1-4] Rachel Sherr '16 [5-6]
Red Devils	Micherice Tao '19 [1-6]	Rachel Sherr '16 [1-4] Graham Gerrity '17 [5-6]
Sir Francis Drake	George Kripac '17 [1-6]	Amber White '19 [1-4] Noelle Scheer '18 [5-6]
Varsity	Ryan Osier '18 [1-2] Noah Sanders '18 [3-6]	Phoebe Kemp '19 [1-2, 5-6] Alexa Neely '19 [3-4]
St. Francis HS - Mountain View, CA	No Show	No Show
Varsity	Jack Larkin '18	Madeleine Roman '16
Tamalpais High School	Joe Rico '18	Emma Jones '18
Red Tailed Hawks 1	Fergus Campbell '18 [1-2, 5] Griffin Chen '19 [3-4, 6]	Lillian Rose-Wickman '19 [1-2, 5] Emma Figueredo '19 [3-4] Nickolas Monrique '19 [6]
Tamalpais High School	No Show	No Show
Red Tailed Hawks 2	Joe De Hemptinne '19	Jack Curphey '19
The Bay School of San Francisco	No Show	No Show
Breakers	Alex Pick '19 [1, 3, 5] Sarah Cuyler '19 [2, 4, 6]	Sarah Cuyler '19 [1, 3, 5] Alex Pick '19 [2, 4, 6]
The Urban School	Anna Krylova '20 [1, 3, 5] Cayley Crist '17 [2, 4, 6]	Hannah Schrank '19 [1, 3, 5] Anna Krylova '20 [2, 4, 6]
Varsity	No Show	No Show
Waldorf High School	Aidan Doyle '18	Lena Fisher '18
Varsity	Phillip Platt '19 [1-4] Rebecca Thompson '16 [5-6]	Sophie Miller '19 [1-4]

Conditions — 02/13/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.6 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1024.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Redwood: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.37 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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