NorCal Divisional #2 GOLD

HostRedwood
Date02/13/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Redwood High School	Giants 1	9	16	25
2	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	28	25	53
3	Marin Academy	Wildcats	12	41	53
4	Alameda High School	Varsity	36	28	64
5	Redwood High School	Giants 2	36	40	76
6	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	54	38	92
7	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	47	49	96
8	Stevenson School	Varsity	31	67	98
9	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	61	43	104
10	Kirby School	Kirby Varsity	62 MRP	48 MRP	110 MRP
11	Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	45	84	129
12	Soquel High School	Soquel Varsity	84	59	143
13	Campolindo High School	Cougars	91 MRP	56 MRP	147 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Redwood High School	Giants 1	1	2	1	1	1	3	9	Will Martens '16 [1-6] Chloe Holder '19 [1-4] Madeline Wolfson '19 [5-6]
Marin Academy	Wildcats	3	1	2	2	3	1	12	Alyson Crowley '16 Elise Lamarre '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	2	4	5	3	6	8	28	Hayden Potter '16 Francis Streitman '17
Stevenson School	Varsity	9	5	3	5	7	2	31	Stuart Henry '17 Susanna Yan '18
Redwood High School	Giants 2	6	3	11	4	2	10	36	Harry Schmidt '16 Henri Stephan '18
Alameda High School	Varsity	7	6	4	6	9	4	36	Drake Hayes '17 Liam Orozco '19
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	11	7	10	7	4	6	45	Charlotte Lenz '16 Charlie Atkinson '18
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	8	10	8	8	8	5	47	Mats Keldsen '19 [1-4] Emiliano Bache '16 [5-6] Michael Kastner '16 [1-4] Mats Keldsen '19 [5-6]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	5	11	6	9	12	11	54	Ryder Easterlin '16 Isabel De La Torre '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	10	8	9	11	11	12	61	Sumner Strumph '17 [1-6] Reid Wishner '19 [1-4] Alexander Holderness '17 [5-6]
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity	4	9	7	10	5	7	62 MRP	Josselyn Verutti '17 [1-6] Ben Risley '17 [1-4] Lilah Foster '17 [5-6]
Soquel High School	Soquel Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	84	No Show No Show
Campolindo High School	Cougars	DNS	DNS	12	12	10	9	91 MRP	Daniel Warner '18 [1-4] Cooper Larhette '17 [5-6] Kaitlyn Zarembinski '17 [1-2, 5-6] Derek Nelson '18 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Redwood High School	Giants 1	1	1	4	3	4	3	16	Tommy Young '18 [1-4] Chloe Holder '19 [5-6] Ian Roddy '18 [1-2] Jake Lopez '19 [3-6]
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	6	5	5	6	1	2	25	Andy Strike '16 Makena Barkus '18
Alameda High School	Varsity	8	2	2	4	2	10	28	Simon Boeger '19 Miles Orozco '16
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	11	11	6	1	3	6	38	Jonar Tanguilig '16 [1-6] Maeve Clayton '17 [1-4] Evelyn Plam '19 [5-6]
Redwood High School	Giants 2	9	6	7	8	5	5	40	Michael Brandon '16 [1-6] Madeline Stull '19 [1-2, 5-6] Madeline Wolfson '19 [3-4]
Marin Academy	Wildcats	5	3	OCS	2	6	11	41	Madeline Kuhn '16 Emily Ritter '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	3	4	8	9	12	7	43	Chloe Bohannon '16 [1-4] John Deruff '17 [5-6] William Hale '18 [1-4]
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity	2	7	3	7	8	1	48 MRP	Olivia Beers '17 [1-6] Lilah Foster '17 [1-4] Ben Risley '17 [5-6]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	4	10	9	10	7	9	49	Gwynie Dunlevy '16 Zoe Shane '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars	7	8	1	5	11	4	56 MRP	Ryter Ullrich '18 [1-6] Derek Nelson '18 [1-2] Kristen Zarembinski '19 [3-6]
Soquel High School	Soquel Varsity	10	9	11	12	9	8	59	Jackson Halderman '17 Fiona Dauphinee '16
Stevenson School	Varsity	12	12	10	11	10	12	67	Ian Smelser '17 Kay Du '18
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	84	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Alameda High School Varsity	48	48	48	48	48	48
Campolindo High School Cougars	55	55	55	55	55	55
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10
Kirby School Kirby Varsity	102	102	102	102	102	102
Marin Academy Wildcats	121	121	121	121	121	121
Redwood High School Giants 1	122	122	122	122	122	122
Redwood High School Giants 2	18	18	18	18	18	18
Santa Cruz High School Varsity	103	103	103	103	103	103
Soquel High School Soquel Varsity	103	103	103	103	103	103
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4
Stevenson School Varsity	99	99	99	99	99	99
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	134	134	134	134	134	134
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	83	83	83	83	83	83

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Alameda High School Varsity	48	48	48	48	48	48
Campolindo High School Cougars	55	55	55	55	55	55
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10
Kirby School Kirby Varsity	102	102	102	102	102	102
Marin Academy Wildcats	121	121	121	121	121	121
Redwood High School Giants 1	122	122	122	122	122	122
Redwood High School Giants 2	18	18	18	18	18	18
Santa Cruz High School Varsity	103	103	103	103	103	103
Soquel High School Soquel Varsity	103	103	103	103	103	103
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4
Stevenson School Varsity	99	99	99	99	99	99
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	134	134	134	134	134	134
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	83	83	83	83	83	83

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Drake Hayes '17	Liam Orozco '19
Varsity	Simon Boeger '19	Miles Orozco '16
Campolindo High School	Daniel Warner '18 [1-4] Cooper Larhette '17 [5-6]	Kaitlyn Zarembinski '17 [1-2, 5-6] Derek Nelson '18 [3-4]
Cougars	Ryter Ullrich '18 [1-6]	Derek Nelson '18 [1-2] Kristen Zarembinski '19 [3-6]
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Mats Keldsen '19 [1-4] Emiliano Bache '16 [5-6]	Michael Kastner '16 [1-4] Mats Keldsen '19 [5-6]
Cubs	Gwynie Dunlevy '16	Zoe Shane '19
Kirby School	Josselyn Verutti '17 [1-6]	Ben Risley '17 [1-4] Lilah Foster '17 [5-6]
Kirby Varsity	Olivia Beers '17 [1-6]	Lilah Foster '17 [1-4] Ben Risley '17 [5-6]
Marin Academy	Alyson Crowley '16	Elise Lamarre '19
Wildcats	Madeline Kuhn '16	Emily Ritter '16
Redwood High School	Will Martens '16 [1-6]	Chloe Holder '19 [1-4] Madeline Wolfson '19 [5-6]
Giants 1	Tommy Young '18 [1-4] Chloe Holder '19 [5-6]	Ian Roddy '18 [1-2] Jake Lopez '19 [3-6]
Redwood High School	Harry Schmidt '16	Henri Stephan '18
Giants 2	Michael Brandon '16 [1-6]	Madeline Stull '19 [1-2, 5-6] Madeline Wolfson '19 [3-4]
Santa Cruz High School	Charlotte Lenz '16	Charlie Atkinson '18
Varsity	No Show	No Show
Soquel High School	No Show	No Show
Soquel Varsity	Jackson Halderman '17	Fiona Dauphinee '16
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Ryder Easterlin '16	Isabel De La Torre '16
Varsity	Jonar Tanguilig '16 [1-6]	Maeve Clayton '17 [1-4] Evelyn Plam '19 [5-6]
Stevenson School	Stuart Henry '17	Susanna Yan '18
Varsity	Ian Smelser '17	Kay Du '18
Tamalpais High School	Hayden Potter '16	Francis Streitman '17
Red Tailed Hawks	Andy Strike '16	Makena Barkus '18
The Bay School of San Francisco	Sumner Strumph '17 [1-6]	Reid Wishner '19 [1-4] Alexander Holderness '17 [5-6]
Breakers	Chloe Bohannon '16 [1-4] John Deruff '17 [5-6]	William Hale '18 [1-4]

Conditions — 02/13/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 65°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.6 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From NW (307°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1024.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Redwood: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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