North Points #4

HostCarolina Yacht Club
Date02/20/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	23	14	37
2	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	32	30	62
3	SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	41	26	67
4	Beaufort High School	Varsity	23	52	75
5	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	71	23	94
6	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	73	26	99
7	Ashley Hall	Panthers	48	55	103
8	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	59	45	104
9	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	34	82	116
10	Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	48	73	121
11	Glynn Academy	Varsity	51	73	124
12	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	63	71	134
13	Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	66	73	139
14	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	94	45	139
15	Atlanta International School	Eagles	90	53	143
16	Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	69	89	158
17	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors	79	94	173
18	Benedictine Military School	Varsity	89	102	191
19	Carrboro High School	Varsity	117	115	232

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Beaufort High School	Varsity	1	14	1	1	3	3	23	Walter Gnann '17 Sarah Suber '18
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	6	2	2	7	4	2	23	Hunter Moore '16 [1-6] Emma Scott '18 [1-2] Peter Creed '16 [3-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	OCS	1	7	2	1	1	32	Valerio Petris '16 Elizabeth Tompkins '17
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	9	3	5	3	6	8	34	Noah Benton '18 Victoria Marinoff '18
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	4	4	9	5	12	7	41	Sarah Deloach '17 Caroline Keinath '17
Ashley Hall	Panthers	5	10	4	4	11	14	48	Elizabeth Walters '16 Mary Hope Chakeris '18
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	7	8	13	12	2	6	48	Collin Porter '19 Cecilia Belzer '18
Glynn Academy	Varsity	3	7	DSQ	6	10	5	51	Telmo Basterra '17 Emmie Landford '16
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	11	5	8	8	16	11	59	Croix Farmer '17 [1-6] Caroline Puckette '16 [1-2] Bobby Baker '18 [3-4] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [5-6]
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	OCS	6	3	11	13	10	63	G. Alex White '16 David Robertson '17
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	8	11	10	15	9	13	66	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6] Polk Baggett '22 [1-4] William Lewis '21 [5-6]
Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	10	15	15	18	7	4	69	Alexis Edwards '16 Caroline James '19
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	2	13	12	14	14	16	71	Peter Buyck '18 [1-6] Joey Chomyn '19 [1-2] William Chapman '18 [3-6]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	12	16	11	17	8	9	73	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-6] Courtney Weidinger '17 [1-4] William Bowden '16 [5-6]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors	OCS	9	DSQ	13	5	12	79	Chris Chaplin '16 Belle Valiulis '18
Benedictine Military School	Varsity	OCS	12	14	9	17	17	89	Will Gladden '19 [1-4] Matthew Gallovitch '18 [5-6] Reid O'Brien '18 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Gallovitch '18 [3-4]
Atlanta International School	Eagles	OCS	18	6	16	15	15	90	Grace Hawkins '19 Audrey Nozier '19
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	13	19	16	10	18	18	94	Jason Perryman '17 Joseph Murray '17
Carrboro High School	Varsity	OCS	17	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	117	Levi Hencke '18 [1-6] Lia Osborne '16 [1-2, 5-6] Kelsey Ferguson '18 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	3	1	1	1	1	7	14	Cameron Gise '16 Caroline Main '18
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	4	9	3	3	2	2	23	Joey Chomyn '19 Robert Turner '18
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	1	4	8	4	6	3	26	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-6] William Bowden '16 [1-2] Declan O'Dell '18 [3-6]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	6	8	2	5	4	1	26	Frances Hart '19 Bridget Conelly '17
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	5	2	6	6	3	8	30	Michael Lane '17 [1-6] Madelyn Hansen '17 [1-2, 5-6] Cade Hughes '18 [3-4]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	2	5	DSQ	2	7	9	45	Jordan Newland '18 [1-4] Caroline Puckette '16 [5-6] Britton Durst '19 [1-2] Megan Fetterley '19 [3-4] Bobby Baker '18 [5-6]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	7	3	11	13	5	6	45	Ben Newman '17 Luke Volk '17
Beaufort High School	Varsity	8	6	5	9	11	13	52	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-2] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [3-6] Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-2] Luke Mcguire '18 [3-4] Jacob Lawson '18 [5-6]
Atlanta International School	Eagles	12	7	10	8	12	4	53	Timo Kraus '18 Michener Anthony '19
Ashley Hall	Panthers	RDG	11	7	7	10	11	55	Ann Sheridan '18 Elizabeth Ouzts '17
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	DSQ	13	4	10	14	10	71	Sam Finlay '17 Gareth Ferguson '19
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	9	12	13	18	9	12	73	Duke Cowart '19 Parker Grove '16
Glynn Academy	Varsity	10	10	16	15	8	14	73	Griffin Stevenson '17 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Graiser '18 [3-4] Olivia Pruitt '17 [1-2, 5-6] Riley Power '18 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	CFA Varsity	11	17	15	12	13	5	73	Mairead Benson '22 [1-6] William Lewis '21 [1-4] Polk Baggett '22 [5-6]
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw High School	14	15	12	11	15	15	82	Noah Giltmier '18 Ella Grace Bodie '18
Pamlico County High School	Hurricanes	13	16	14	14	16	16	89	Ben Bruno '18 Alden Sylvester '18
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors	DSQ	14	9	17	17	17	94	Connor Young '17 [1-6] Sarah Harrington '18 [1-2, 5-6] Allie Ugur '17 [3-4]
Benedictine Military School	Varsity	15	18	17	16	18	18	102	Merritt Whiddon '18 [1-4] Hunter Fries '18 [5-6] Chris Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-6] Hunter Fries '18 [3-4]
Carrboro High School	Varsity	16	19	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	115	Kelsey Ferguson '18 [1-2, 5-6] Levi Hencke '18 [3-4] Liam Himmel '19 [1-2] Lia Osborne '16 [3-4] Levi Hencke '18 [5-6]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.290+0.29

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors	34	34	1	1	2	2
Ashley Hall Panthers	1	1	2	2	3	3
Atlanta International School Eagles	2	2	3	3	14	14
Beaufort High School Varsity	3	3	14	14	4	4
Benedictine Military School Varsity	14	14	4	4	5	5
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	4	4	5	5	6	6
Carrboro High School Varsity	5	5	6	6	22	22
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	12	12	29	29	13	13
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	6	6	22	22	7	7
Glynn Academy Varsity	22	22	7	7	30	30
James Island Charter High School Varsity	7	7	30	30	9	9
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	30	30	9	9	10	10
Pamlico County High School Hurricanes	9	9	10	10	25	25
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	10	10	25	25	11	11
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	25	25	11	11	12	12
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	11	11	12	12	29	29
Savannah Country Day School Hornets	29	29	13	13	8	8
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School	13	13	8	8	34	34
Wando High School Wando Warriors	8	8	34	34	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors	7	7	30	30	9	9
Ashley Hall Panthers	30	30	9	9	10	10
Atlanta International School Eagles	9	9	10	10	25	25
Beaufort High School Varsity	10	10	25	25	11	11
Benedictine Military School Varsity	25	25	11	11	12	12
Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity	11	11	12	12	29	29
Carrboro High School Varsity	12	12	29	29	13	13
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	4	4	5	5	6	6
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	29	29	13	13	8	8
Glynn Academy Varsity	13	13	8	8	34	34
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	34	34	1	1
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	34	34	1	1	2	2
Pamlico County High School Hurricanes	1	1	2	2	3	3
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	2	2	3	3	14	14
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	3	3	14	14	4	4
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	14	14	4	4	5	5
Savannah Country Day School Hornets	5	5	6	6	22	22
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School	6	6	22	22	7	7
Wando High School Wando Warriors	22	22	7	7	30	30

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Chris Chaplin '16	Belle Valiulis '18
Raptors	Connor Young '17 [1-6]	Sarah Harrington '18 [1-2, 5-6] Allie Ugur '17 [3-4]
Ashley Hall	Elizabeth Walters '16	Mary Hope Chakeris '18
Panthers	Ann Sheridan '18	Elizabeth Ouzts '17
Atlanta International School	Grace Hawkins '19	Audrey Nozier '19
Eagles	Timo Kraus '18	Michener Anthony '19
Beaufort High School	Walter Gnann '17	Sarah Suber '18
Varsity	Jacob Lawson '18 [1-2] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [3-6]	Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-2] Luke Mcguire '18 [3-4] Jacob Lawson '18 [5-6]
Benedictine Military School	Will Gladden '19 [1-4] Matthew Gallovitch '18 [5-6]	Reid O'Brien '18 [1-2, 5-6] Matthew Gallovitch '18 [3-4]
Varsity	Merritt Whiddon '18 [1-4] Hunter Fries '18 [5-6]	Chris Pitts '18 [1-2, 5-6] Hunter Fries '18 [3-4]
Cape Fear Academy	Benjamin Smith '22 [1-6]	Polk Baggett '22 [1-4] William Lewis '21 [5-6]
CFA Varsity	Mairead Benson '22 [1-6]	William Lewis '21 [1-4] Polk Baggett '22 [5-6]
Carrboro High School	Levi Hencke '18 [1-6]	Lia Osborne '16 [1-2, 5-6] Kelsey Ferguson '18 [3-4]
Varsity	Kelsey Ferguson '18 [1-2, 5-6] Levi Hencke '18 [3-4]	Liam Himmel '19 [1-2] Lia Osborne '16 [3-4] Levi Hencke '18 [5-6]
Durham School of The Arts	G. Alex White '16	David Robertson '17
Varsity	Sam Finlay '17	Gareth Ferguson '19
Glynn Academy	Telmo Basterra '17	Emmie Landford '16
Varsity	Griffin Stevenson '17 [1-2, 5-6] Alex Graiser '18 [3-4]	Olivia Pruitt '17 [1-2, 5-6] Riley Power '18 [3-4]
James Island Charter High School	Croix Farmer '17 [1-6]	Caroline Puckette '16 [1-2] Bobby Baker '18 [3-4] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [5-6]
Varsity	Jordan Newland '18 [1-4] Caroline Puckette '16 [5-6]	Britton Durst '19 [1-2] Megan Fetterley '19 [3-4] Bobby Baker '18 [5-6]
Lake Norman High School	Matthew Chenard '17 [1-6]	Courtney Weidinger '17 [1-4] William Bowden '16 [5-6]
Wildcats	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-6]	William Bowden '16 [1-2] Declan O'Dell '18 [3-6]
Pamlico County High School	Alexis Edwards '16	Caroline James '19
Hurricanes	Ben Bruno '18	Alden Sylvester '18
Pine Lake Prep	Jason Perryman '17	Joseph Murray '17
Varsity	Ben Newman '17	Luke Volk '17
Porter-Gaud School	Peter Buyck '18 [1-6]	Joey Chomyn '19 [1-2] William Chapman '18 [3-6]
Varsity	Joey Chomyn '19	Robert Turner '18
Richmond Hill High School	Valerio Petris '16	Elizabeth Tompkins '17
Varsity	Michael Lane '17 [1-6]	Madelyn Hansen '17 [1-2, 5-6] Cade Hughes '18 [3-4]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	Sarah Deloach '17	Caroline Keinath '17
SOA Varsity	Frances Hart '19	Bridget Conelly '17
Savannah Country Day School	Collin Porter '19	Cecilia Belzer '18
Hornets	Duke Cowart '19	Parker Grove '16
Waccamaw High School	Noah Benton '18	Victoria Marinoff '18
Waccamaw High School	Noah Giltmier '18	Ella Grace Bodie '18
Wando High School	Hunter Moore '16 [1-6]	Emma Scott '18 [1-2] Peter Creed '16 [3-6]
Wando Warriors	Cameron Gise '16	Caroline Main '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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North Points #4

Division A

Division B

From the notes