| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Nikola Tesla STEM High School | Engineers | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners V | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 0–0 |
| 8 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,164 team race matches sailed before 2016-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 1 of 2 matches (50%) with a log-loss of 1.335 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 1 | 3.25 school +0.13 | Olivia Mitchell / Roark Coggon 1.41 Harrison Saliba / Daniel Rentz 0.52 Kathryn Smith / Sophie Crandell 1.16 | 92% | 1–1 (50%) | −0.9 |
| 7 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 2 | -0.01 school −0.11 | Alex Hosier / Tyler Nolasco Lina Fowler / Claire Jablonski Isabelle Wheeler / Rebekah Arvila | 8% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Central Kitsap High School | -0.01 | 3.24 | 1–1 | 0.1 | +3.26 | 1.9 | 14% |
| 4 | Bainbridge High School | 3.25 | -0.01 | 1–1 | 1.9 | −3.26 | 1.9 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | Bainbridge High School | Central Kitsap High School | 93% | |
| 2 | 40 | Central Kitsap High School | Bainbridge High School | 7% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Raiders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners V | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners V | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Dogfish | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Mariners V | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Vikings | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners V | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Engineers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners V | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Vikings | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Mariners V | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Engineers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Dogfish | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Mariners V | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Vikings | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners V | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Engineers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Vikings | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Dogfish | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Mariners V | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Mariners V | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Dogfish | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Mariners V | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 1-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Engineers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners V | 2-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Raiders | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 49 | |
Mariners V | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 1-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Mariners V | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Engineers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 1-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Harrison Saliba '17 Kathryn Smith '17 Olivia Mitchell '18 Sophie Crandell '18 |
Camden Lee '19 Daniel Rentz '18 Sophie Crandell '18 Jack Sobeck '19 Roark Coggon '19 Kathryn Smith '17 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Alex Hosier '17 Isabelle Wheeler '17 Lina Fowler '18 |
Tyler Nolasco '19 Rebekah Arvila '18 Claire Jablonski '19 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
