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Raritan Tuesday Series Eleven

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 15 15
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 16 16
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 18 18
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 25 25
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 26 26
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 32 32
7 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 46 46
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 46 46
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 50 50
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 3 4 3 1 1 15 Mark Freidin '16 [1-6]
Natalie Herr '17 [1-2]
Danny Kane '16 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 2 3 1 3 5 16 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-6]
Katharine Srere '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 4 2 5 4 2 18 Patrick Murray '19 [1-6]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 7 5 1 2 6 4 25 Margot Murray '17
Sarah Elia '16
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 5 1 5 4 5 6 26 Marisa Marino '17 [1-6]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 6 8 6 7 2 3 32 Evan Hybl '19 [1-6]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [3-6]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 8 7 7 8 8 8 46 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Michael Rodriquez '16
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 9 9 8 6 7 7 46 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [3-4]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 4 6 DNS DNS DNS DNS 50 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Mia Chmelar '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1555555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888888
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers777777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1333333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2111111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3666666
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4222222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5121212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6999999
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [3-4]		 Andrew Ziegler '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Marisa Marino '17 [1-6] Jillian Puglisi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3-4]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Sabrina Gonzalez '17 Michael Rodriquez '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-6] Katharine Srere '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Margot Murray '17 Sarah Elia '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Mark Freidin '16 [1-6] Natalie Herr '17 [1-2]
Danny Kane '16 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Patrick Murray '19 [1-6] William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Evan Hybl '19 [1-6] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Kelsey Kennedy '18 Mia Chmelar '19

Conditions — 05/24/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

68°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 59°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover86% Sunshine7.6 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1013.1 hPa Rain0.14 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.04 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →