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Raritan Tuesday Series Four

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 10 10
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 14 14
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 23 23
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 35 35
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 36 36
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 39 39
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 40 40
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 40 40
9 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 57 57
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 60 60
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 72 72
12 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 78 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 3 1 2 1 2 1 10 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 3 1 2 1 2 14 Thomas Quinn '18
Katharine Srere '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 1 4 6 3 3 6 23 Juliana Marino '16
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 8 9 4 5 5 4 35 Liam Dwyer '17
George Tricker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 2 6 3 7 9 9 36 Mark Freidin '16
Sarah Parenti '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 9 7 8 6 4 5 39 Marisa Marino '17
Zoe Papier '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 8 5 OCS 7 3 40 Danny Kane '16
Nicholas Bergmann '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 7 5 7 8 6 7 40 Alexander Wilson '16
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 DNS 11 DNS 4 8 8 57 Michael Rodriquez '16
Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Sarah Elia '16
Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 10 10 DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 William Przedpelski '17
Liz Colao '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 78 Grace Vega '16
Jeffrey Rosario '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1222222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2777777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3111111111111
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 1888888
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 2101010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2333333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3444444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4555555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5666666
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 6999999
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils121212121212
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Marisa Marino '17 Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Alexander Wilson '16 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Juliana Marino '16 Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Grace Vega '16 Jeffrey Rosario '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 Michael Rodriquez '16 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Danny Kane '16 Nicholas Bergmann '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Liam Dwyer '17 George Tricker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sarah Elia '16 Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Mark Freidin '16 Sarah Parenti '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Thomas Quinn '18 Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 William Przedpelski '17 Liz Colao '19
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 Tomas Rios '18

Conditions — 04/05/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 31%  ·  Pressure 1026.5 hPa

Temperature

35°F
↑ 40°F   ↓ 26°F
Feels like 25°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.4 kn
avg  ·  max 12.9 kn
Gusts to 26.4 kn
From N (352°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity31% Pressure1026.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →