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Raritan Tuesday Series Nine

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 13 13
2 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 27 27
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 32 32
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 33 33
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 34 34
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 37 37
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 44 44
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 52 52
9 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 55 55
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 59 59
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 1 3 1 4 2 1 1 13 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-7]
Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-7]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils DNS 2 2 5 3 2 2 27 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 4 5 7 2 1 8 5 32 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-7]
Sarah Parenti '17 [1-2]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 1 5 7 4 5 9 33 Mark Freidin '16 [1-7]
Danny Kane '16 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 8 4 3 3 9 3 4 34 Patrick Murray '19 [1-7]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Morgen Shung '19 [3-7]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 6 7 8 1 5 4 6 37 Juliana Marino '16
Grace Evans '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 7 9 6 6 7 6 3 44 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-7]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
George Tricker '17 [3-7]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 3 8 10 9 8 7 7 52 Alexander Wilson '16
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 9 6 9 8 6 9 8 55 Grace Vega '16
Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 5 10 4 10 10 10 10 59 Olivia Rondepierre '17
Zoe Papier '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 18888888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 210101010101010
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 37777777
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers6666666
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 14444444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 22222222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 43333333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 55555555
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils12121212121212
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Juliana Marino '16 Grace Evans '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Olivia Rondepierre '17 Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Alexander Wilson '16 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Grace Vega '16 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-7] Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Mark Freidin '16 [1-7] Danny Kane '16 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Patrick Murray '19 [1-7] William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Morgen Shung '19 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-7] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
George Tricker '17 [3-7]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-7] Sarah Parenti '17 [1-2]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-7]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 Tomas Rios '18

Conditions — 05/10/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 47%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 15.2 kn
From W (266°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.1 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.01 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →