Navigate

Raritan Tuesday Series Six

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 9 9
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 13 13
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 19 19
4 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 25 25
5 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 33 33
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 33 33
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 36 36
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 37 37
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 38 38
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 42 42
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 51 51
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 2 4 1 1 1 9 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 1 4 2 3 13 Margot Murray '17 [1-5]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 7 2 2 3 5 19 Patrick Murray '19
Katharine Srere '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 6 3 6 6 4 25 Grace Vega '16
Kevin Tang '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 8 8 3 8 6 33 Sabrina Gonzalez '17
Kyle Simandy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 10 DNS 5 4 2 33 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5]
Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Mark Freidin '16 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 9 7 7 5 8 36 Kelsey Kennedy '18
George Tricker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 4 5 DNS 7 9 37 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-5]
Nicholas Bergmann '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 9 9 9 10 38 Alexander Wilson '16
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 11 6 8 10 7 42 Danny Kane '16 [1-5]
Caroline Phillips '17 [1-2]
Natalie Herr '17 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 10 DNS DNS DNS 51 Malcolm Harrison '19
Sarah Parenti '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars88888
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 166666
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 21111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 222222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 333333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 444444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 577777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 699999
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 71010101010
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils55555
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars Alexander Wilson '16 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Sabrina Gonzalez '17 Kyle Simandy '18
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 Grace Vega '16 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Danny Kane '16 [1-5] Caroline Phillips '17 [1-2]
Natalie Herr '17 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5] Juliana Rustum '16 [1-2]
Mark Freidin '16 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Kelsey Kennedy '18 George Tricker '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Margot Murray '17 [1-5] William Przedpelski '17 [1-2]
Sarah Elia '16 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Malcolm Harrison '19 Sarah Parenti '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Patrick Murray '19 Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-5] Nicholas Bergmann '17 [1-2]
Liz Colao '19 [3-5]
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 Tomas Rios '18

Conditions — 04/19/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1016.0 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 68°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.2 kn
avg  ·  max 11.3 kn
Gusts to 24.1 kn
From NNW (335°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover52% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1016.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 15 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.39 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →