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Raritan Tuesday Series Ten

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 13 13
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 16 16
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 19 19
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 21 21
5 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 32 32
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 35 35
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 40 40
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 52 52
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 54 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 4 1 1 3 3 1 13 Juliana Marino '16
Marisa Marino '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 2 3 2 1 5 16 Patrick Murray '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 4 2 6 4 2 19 Liam Dwyer '17
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 2 3 4 4 2 6 21 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-6]
Morgen Shung '19 [1-2, 5-6]
George Tricker '17 [3-4]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 8 6 5 1 5 7 32 Michael Rodriquez '16
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 7 5 7 7 6 3 35 Grace Evans '17 [1-6]
Jillian Puglisi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 9 6 5 7 4 40 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-6]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 5 7 DNS DNS DNS DNS 52 Malcolm Harrison '19
William Przedpelski '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 6 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS 54 Caroline Phillips '17
Katharine Srere '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1111111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2444444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3888888
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers333333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1222222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 2555555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 3777777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 4101010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 5121212121212
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Grace Evans '17 [1-6] Jillian Puglisi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Juliana Marino '16 Marisa Marino '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-6] Andrew Ziegler '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [3-4]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Michael Rodriquez '16 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Malcolm Harrison '19 William Przedpelski '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Caroline Phillips '17 Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Patrick Murray '19 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Liam Dwyer '17 Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-6] Morgen Shung '19 [1-2, 5-6]
George Tricker '17 [3-4]

Conditions — 05/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.8 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From SW (232°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine3.0 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1022.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.28 ± 0.31)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →