Raritan Tuesday Series Two

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 9 9
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 17 17
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 23 23
4 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 26 26
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 28 28
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 28 28
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 41 41
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 43 43
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 45 45
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 53 53
11 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 56 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 4 2 1 1 1 9 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 3 7 2 4 17 Thomas Quinn '18
Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 8 5 3 5 2 23 Patrick Murray '19 [1-2, 5]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-4]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2, 5]
Patrick Murray '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 7 6 4 4 5 26 Marisa Marino '17 [1-5]
Jenna Huffman '16 [1-2]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 3 4 DNS 6 3 28 Juliana Marino '16 [1-5]
Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-3]
Zoe Papier '19 [4]
Jenna Huffman '16 [5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 DNF 2 3 6 28 Margot Murray '17
George Tricker '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 9 DNF 6 7 7 41 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-5]
Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3-4]
Ryan Mayes '19 [5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 6 1 DNS DNS DNS 43 Sarah Elia '16
Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 7 DNS DNS DNS 45 Danny Kane '16
Juliana Rustum '16
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 DNF DNF 5 DNS DNS 53 Olivia Rondepierre '17 [1-2]
Jillian Torrente '17 [3-5]
Grace Evans '17 [1-2]
Olivia Rondepierre '17 [3-5]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers DNF 8 DNS DNS DNS 56 Grace Vega '16
Kevin Tang '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 188888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 299999
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 31010101010
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 41111111111
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers44444
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 122222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 233333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 355555
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 466666
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51212121212
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils11111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Olivia Rondepierre '17 [1-2]
Jillian Torrente '17 [3-5]
Grace Evans '17 [1-2]
Olivia Rondepierre '17 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Juliana Marino '16 [1-5] Stephanie Gilsenan '17 [1-3]
Zoe Papier '19 [4]
Jenna Huffman '16 [5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Marisa Marino '17 [1-5] Jenna Huffman '16 [1-2]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Alexander Wilson '16 [1-5] Paul Danenberg '19 [1-2]
Andrew Ziegler '16 [3-4]
Ryan Mayes '19 [5]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Grace Vega '16 Kevin Tang '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Danny Kane '16 Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sarah Elia '16 Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Patrick Murray '19 [1-2, 5]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [3-4]
Kelsey Kennedy '18 [1-2, 5]
Patrick Murray '19 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Thomas Quinn '18 Juliana Rustum '16
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Margot Murray '17 George Tricker '17
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 Tomas Rios '18

Conditions — 03/22/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1020.4 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 32°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 11.5 kn
Gusts to 23.1 kn
From WSW (252°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover41% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1020.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.48 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →