BCSC Junior Varisty

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Varsity 8 12 20
2 Towson High School Towson High School Generals 25 12 37
3 Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 21 28 49
4 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Honets 25 27 52
5 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 24 33 57
6 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 29 32 61
7 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 38 30 68
8 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 46 42 88
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Varsity 1 3 1 1 1 1 8 Iain Shand '19
Chris Murray '18
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 3 2 4 4 2 6 21 Lucas Orta '19
Ethan Rushlow '19
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 1 5 5 8 3 24 Billy Rust '20
Zoe Pochron '21
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 6 5 2 2 6 4 25 Olivia Yazigi '19
Helena Ware '18
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Honets 7 6 3 3 4 2 25 Olivia Sowa '20
Lochlann Ludwig '21
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 4 7 6 3 5 29 No Show
Claire Goldsborough '18
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 5 8 6 7 5 7 38 Erika Wise '19 [1-6]
Anna Weber '17 [1-4]
Addison Musick '20 [5-6]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 8 7 8 8 7 8 46 Mark Thiergartner '17 [1-2]
Ally Snead '19 [3-6]
Ted Ginsburg '19 [1-4]
David Streidel '19 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Towson High School Towson High School Generals 1 2 3 3 2 1 12 Ethan Rushlow '20
Adam Smith '18
North East River High School North East River High School Varsity 3 1 1 1 3 3 12 Alex Walters '18
Skylor Sweet Proud '22
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Honets 6 7 4 2 1 7 27 Lucy Paskoff '20
Hannah Carlsen '19
Boys Latin Boys Latin Lakers 8 4 2 4 4 6 28 William Dryer '20
Mike Buscemi '20
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 6 5 6 6 5 30 Emily Williams '20
Julia Marino '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 3 8 8 5 4 32 No Show
No Show
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 5 5 7 7 7 2 33 Ole Singelstad '21
Mary Nolan '21
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 7 8 6 5 8 8 42 Maeve Drury '19 [1-4]
Mark Thiergartner '17 [5-6]
Will Morrissey '19 [1-4]
Liam Gallagher '20 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers113355
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Honets224466
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles335577
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers446688
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders557711
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Varsity668822
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres771133
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals882244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Boys LatinBoys Latin Lakers224466
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Honets335577
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles446688
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers557711
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders668822
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Varsity771133
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres882244
Towson High SchoolTowson High School Generals113355

Conditions — 04/09/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1022.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From S (169°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1022.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Baltimore County Sailing Center: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.24)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Baltimore County Sailing Center by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Baltimore County Sailing Center, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →