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Columbia Bay #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1 8 4 12
2 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 9 5 14
3 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 6 12 18
4 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 9 12 21
5 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 3 14 15 29
6 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 17 15 32
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 3 2 1 6 Emily Gildea '17
Maura Hopkinson '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1 1 1 6 8 Lillian Nemeth '18
Otto Brown '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 2 4 3 9 Matteo Torquati '19
No Show
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 4 3 2 9 Gregor Leech '18
Caroline Schmidt '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 3 5 5 4 14 Chris Lecompte '17
Claire Russell '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 6 6 5 17 Etain Mckinney '18
Kate Naughton '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1 1 1 2 4 Sam Morin '18
Emerson Wright '19
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 2 2 1 5 Luke Hosek '20
Matheui Halpin '19
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 3 4 5 12 Quinn Shaughnessy '17 [1-2]
John Hultquist '20 [3]
Gavin Wilson '19 [1-2]
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 1 5 3 4 12 Bridget Falkenhayn '19
Hayden Easom '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 2 4 5 6 15 Liam Mcclimans '20
Caroline Hayes '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 3 6 6 3 15 Joseph Shilati '18
Olivia Norton '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity333
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1555
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2131313
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 1999
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 2666
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 3111111

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity222
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 1101010
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2444
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 1888
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 2161616
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers 3181818

Conditions — 04/02/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1019.5 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From SE (132°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1019.5 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Columbia Yacht Cub-Chicago, IL: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.34)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Columbia Yacht Cub-Chicago, IL by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Columbia Yacht Cub-Chicago, IL: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →