NorCal Divisional #3 SILVER

HostRedwood
Date04/01/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Design Tech High School	d.tech	18	38	56
2	Benicia High School	Storm	61	17	78
3	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	39	58	97
4	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	57	51	108
5	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	74	63	137
6	Carlmont	The Scots	28	120	148
7	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	76 MRP	72 MRP	148 MRP
8	The Urban School	Blues	54	95	149
9	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	120	31	151
10	Athenian	Owls	85	79	164
11	Stevenson School	Pirates	92	76	168

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Design Tech High School	d.tech	1	1	4	1	1	2	1	3	1	3	18	Jack Lugliani '18 Timmy Gee '20
Carlmont	The Scots	2	3	1	2	2	5	3	4	5	1	28	Robert Ziman '21 [1-10] Nina Heller '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Kendall Butler '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	3	2	2	OCS	3	6	5	1	3	2	39	Tyler Davis '18 James Scherr '20
The Urban School	Blues	4	4	6	7	9	3	4	8	4	5	54	Eli Gordon '20 Cayley Crist '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	5	5	5	5	7	8	2	2	9	9	57	Ben Covington '19 [1-10] Olivia Mohun '19 [1-6, 9-10] Michael Tellini '17 [7-8]
Benicia High School	Storm	9	8	8	4	6	4	8	6	2	6	61	Julian Sarkany '16 Sophia Jacobs '16
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	8	9	3	6	8	9	10	7	6	8	74	Max Rodman '18 Rosie Ward '19
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	6	6	OCS	3	4	1	7	5	8	4	76 MRP	William Bayliss '20 [1-6] Gabriella Schmidt '18 [7-10] Paul Ikeda '20 [1-6] Carolyne Ikeda '19 [7-10]
Athenian	Owls	7	7	7	8	10	7	9	10	10	10	85	Jackson Kaplan '17 Julieanna Fajardo '20
Stevenson School	Pirates	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	5	10	6	9	7	7	92	Kay Du '18 Susanna Yan '18
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	120	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Benicia High School	Storm	1	1	1	4	2	3	2	1	1	1	17	Jamie Sarkany '16 Grace Glass '19
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	2	2	2	2	6	7	1	2	4	3	31	Nick David '22 [1-8] Tanner Gee '18 [9-10] Tanner Gee '18 [1-8] Nick David '22 [9-10]
Design Tech High School	d.tech	6	5	5	1	1	2	4	3	6	5	38	Jemma Schroder '20 Madelyn Blessinger '19
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	4	4	8	6	5	6	7	7	2	2	51	Alexander Nunez '20 Theo Ennis '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	7	7	7	3	3	1	5	DNS	7	6	58	Ben Wheeler '20 [1-4] Nameer Hirschkind '19 [5-10] Nameer Hirschkind '19 [1-4] Danielle Park '21 [5-10]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	3	3	3	9	7	9	8	4	10	7	63	Lucien Canvinet '20 Eli Kelley '20
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Wildcats	5	6	4	7	4	8	6	5	3	4	72 MRP	Caitlin Froeb '20 [1-6, 9-10] Evelyn Plam '19 [7-8] William Plam '20 [1-2, 5-6] Daria Bubnova '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Stevenson School	Pirates	DNS	DNS	6	5	DNF	4	3	8	5	9	76	Taylor Lee '19 Jaesang Noh '19
Athenian	Owls	8	8	10	8	8	5	9	6	9	8	79	Alisa Chernikova '19 Maxime Dowla '18
The Urban School	Blues	9	9	9	10	9	10	10	9	8	OCS	95	Anna Krylova '20 Dillan Srivastava '20
Carlmont	The Scots	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	120	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Benicia High School Storm	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Carlmont The Scots	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Design Tech High School d.tech	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Los Gatos High School Varsity	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Stevenson School Pirates	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Athenian Owls	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
The Urban School Blues	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Benicia High School Storm	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59	59
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Carlmont The Scots	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Design Tech High School d.tech	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Los Gatos High School Varsity	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38	38
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Wildcats	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Stevenson School Pirates	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99
Athenian Owls	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41	41
The Urban School Blues	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141	141

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Athenian	Jackson Kaplan '17	Julieanna Fajardo '20
Owls	Alisa Chernikova '19	Maxime Dowla '18
Benicia High School	Julian Sarkany '16	Sophia Jacobs '16
Storm	Jamie Sarkany '16	Grace Glass '19
Berkeley High School	Max Rodman '18	Rosie Ward '19
Yellowjackets	Lucien Canvinet '20	Eli Kelley '20
Carlmont	Robert Ziman '21 [1-10]	Nina Heller '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Kendall Butler '18 [3-4, 7-8]
The Scots	No Show	No Show
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Ben Covington '19 [1-10]	Olivia Mohun '19 [1-6, 9-10] Michael Tellini '17 [7-8]
Cubs	Alexander Nunez '20	Theo Ennis '19
Design Tech High School	Jack Lugliani '18	Timmy Gee '20
d.tech	Jemma Schroder '20	Madelyn Blessinger '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tyler Davis '18	James Scherr '20
Tigers	Ben Wheeler '20 [1-4] Nameer Hirschkind '19 [5-10]	Nameer Hirschkind '19 [1-4] Danielle Park '21 [5-10]
Los Gatos High School	No Show	No Show
Varsity	Nick David '22 [1-8] Tanner Gee '18 [9-10]	Tanner Gee '18 [1-8] Nick David '22 [9-10]
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	William Bayliss '20 [1-6] Gabriella Schmidt '18 [7-10]	Paul Ikeda '20 [1-6] Carolyne Ikeda '19 [7-10]
Wildcats	Caitlin Froeb '20 [1-6, 9-10] Evelyn Plam '19 [7-8]	William Plam '20 [1-2, 5-6] Daria Bubnova '20 [3-4, 7-10]
Stevenson School	Kay Du '18	Susanna Yan '18
Pirates	Taylor Lee '19	Jaesang Noh '19
The Urban School	Eli Gordon '20	Cayley Crist '17
Blues	Anna Krylova '20	Dillan Srivastava '20

Conditions — 04/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.0 kn

avg · max 6.1 kn

Gusts to 14.8 kn

From E (90°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn · E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Redwood: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.47 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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