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NWISA: Olympia South Regional Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 8–0
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Blue 7–2
3 St. Mary's - OR St. Mary's - OR Blues 7–2
4 Capital High School Capital High School Capital 6–3
4 Olympia High School Olympia High School Varsity 6–3
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Gold 4–3
7 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3–3
8 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 3–4
8 North Kitsap High School North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3–4
10 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 2–4
11 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Stripes 2–5
12 Olympia High School Olympia High School JV 1–6
13 Kingston High School Kingston High School Varsity 0–6
14 Klahowya Secondary School Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,021 team race matches sailed before 2017-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 13 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.516 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.77: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
2Bainbridge High School
Blue		14.66
school +0.16		Arianna Fiore / Hunter Johnston 1.52
Elizabeth Rolfes / Banning Jones 1.47
Sophia Kasper / Harrison Saliba		89%3–0 (100%)+0.3
3St. Mary's - OR
Blues		22.77Hanna Brush / Kyra Leon
Bamboo Trinh / Mylie Madrid-Hommes
Caleigh Warner / No Show		57%3–1 (75%)+0.7
4Olympia High School
Varsity		51.77
school +0.09, home +0.03		Sam Bonauto
Hatcher Cox
Ian Connolly		46%1–4 (20%)−1.3
6Bainbridge High School
Gold		41.24
school +0.16		Sophie Crandell / Parker Hutchinson
Quinn Ring / Laine Pickell 0.08
Lindsay Campbell / Camden Lee		50%2–0 (100%)+1.0
7Central Kitsap High School
Cougars		61.46Niko Twilla / Lilyan Coleman 0.99
Tyler Nolasco / Travis Bouck 0.34
Shea Kuligowski / Kaylee Frede 1–1
Shea Kuligowski / No Show 1–0		45%2–1 (67%)+0.6
8Lycee Francais de Chicago
Red Hawks		80.97
school +0.21		Luca Gesinger / Orion Pendley
Alejandro Montanez / Anna Wilke 0.42 1–2
Jack Gibbons / Chance Bates 0.29 1–1
Jack Gibbons / Jackson Wilke 0.29 1–1
Alejandro Montanez / Chance Bates 0.45 1–0		30%2–2 (50%)+0.8
11Bainbridge High School
Stripes		32.35
school +0.16		Max Doane / Tristan Knoll
Zach Cooper / Daniel Rentz
Clayton Marsh / No Show		54%0–2 (0%)−1.1
12Olympia High School
JV		51.77
school +0.09, home +0.03		Sam Bonauto
Hatcher Cox
Ian Connolly		46%1–4 (20%)−1.3
14Klahowya Secondary School
Eagles		70.65Reece Duitsman
Carson Short
Collin Bloomer		37%0–3 (0%)−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
2Bainbridge High School Blue4.667.663–02.7≥+3.000.570%
6Bainbridge High School Gold1.244.242–01.0≥+3.001.824%
8Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks0.972.342–21.2+1.370.635%
3St. Mary's - OR Blues2.774.123–12.3+1.350.541%
7Central Kitsap High School Cougars1.462.682–11.3+1.210.442%
12Olympia High School JV1.77-0.091–42.3−1.871.397%
14Klahowya Secondary School Eagles0.65-2.350–31.1≤−3.001.8>99%
11Bainbridge High School Stripes2.35-0.650–21.1≤−3.002.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Arianna FioreBainbridge High School1.524.533–02.7≥+3.000.570%
Sophia KasperBainbridge High School1.484.483–02.7≥+3.000.570%
Alejandro MontanezLycee Francais de Chicago0.421.792–21.2+1.370.635%
Jack GibbonsLycee Francais de Chicago0.291.662–21.2+1.370.635%
Bamboo TrinhSt. Mary's - OR0.722.073–12.3+1.350.541%
Shea KuligowskiCentral Kitsap High School0.081.292–11.3+1.210.442%
Carson ShortKlahowya Secondary School-0.40-3.400–31.1≤−3.001.8>99%
Collin BloomerKlahowya Secondary School0.72-2.280–31.1≤−3.001.8>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
13Bainbridge High School BlueOlympia High School JV91%
19St. Mary's - OR BluesOlympia High School JV67%
111Bainbridge High School BlueLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks95%
112Bainbridge High School GoldKlahowya Secondary School Eagles62%
115Central Kitsap High School CougarsOlympia High School JV43%upset
117St. Mary's - OR BluesLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks80%
123Lycee Francais de Chicago Red HawksCentral Kitsap High School Cougars40%upset
130Olympia High School JVKlahowya Secondary School Eagles71%
133St. Mary's - OR BluesBainbridge High School Stripes61%
136Lycee Francais de Chicago Red HawksKlahowya Secondary School Eagles57%
139Central Kitsap High School CougarsBainbridge High School Stripes32%upset
141Bainbridge High School BlueSt. Mary's - OR Blues80%
146Bainbridge High School GoldOlympia High School JV39%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-2-3 def. Gig Harbor High School Tides 4-5-6
2 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-3 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 4-5-6
3 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-2-3 def. Olympia High School JV 4-5-6
4 Olympia High School Varsity 1-3-5 def. Bainbridge High School Gold 2-4-6
5 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Stripes 3-5-6
6 Capital High School Capital 1-2-3 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 4-5-6
7 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-4 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-5-6
8 Gig Harbor High School Tides 1-2-5 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3-4-6
9 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-2-6 def. Olympia High School JV 3-4-5
10 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 2-3-5 def. Olympia High School Varsity 1-4-6
11 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-2-3 def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 4-5-6 DNF
12 Bainbridge High School Gold 1-3-4 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 2-5-6
13 Bainbridge High School Stripes 1-2-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-4-5
14 Capital High School Capital 1-2-3 def. Kingston High School Varsity 4-5-6
15 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1-2-6 def. Olympia High School JV 3-4-5
16 Olympia High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Gig Harbor High School Tides 4-5-6
17 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-2-5 def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 3-4-6
18 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-3 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 4-5-6
19 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-4-5 def. Bainbridge High School Blue 2-3-6
20 Capital High School Capital 1-3-4 def. Bainbridge High School Gold 2-5-6
21 Bainbridge High School Stripes 1-2-6 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-4-5
22 Olympia High School Varsity 1-2-5 def. Olympia High School JV 3-4-6
23 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2-3-5 def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1-4-6
24 Gig Harbor High School Tides 2-5-6 DNF def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 1-3-4 DSQ
25 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-2-4 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3-5-6
26 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-3 def. Capital High School Capital 4-5-6
27 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-2-5 def. Bainbridge High School Stripes 3-4-6
28 Bainbridge High School Gold 2-3-4 def. Kingston High School Varsity 1-5-6
29 Olympia High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 4-5-6
30 Olympia High School JV 2-3-4 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 1-5-6
31 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2-3-5 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-4-6
32 Capital High School Capital 1-2-4 def. Gig Harbor High School Tides 3-5-6
33 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-2-4 def. Bainbridge High School Stripes 3-5-6
34 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-5 def. Bainbridge High School Gold 3-4-6
35 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-2-6 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-4-5
36 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1-3-5 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 2-4-6
37 Olympia High School Varsity 1-3-6 def. North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2-4-5
38 Capital High School Capital 1-2-4 def. Olympia High School JV 3-5-6 DNF
39 Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1-2-6 def. Bainbridge High School Stripes 3-4-5
40 Bainbridge High School Gold 1-3-5 def. Gig Harbor High School Tides 2-4-6
41 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-3-5 def. St. Mary's - OR Blues 2-4-6 DSQ
42 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-5 def. Kingston High School Varsity 3-4-6
43 North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1-2-3 def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles 4-5-6
44 Capital High School Capital 1-2-4 def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 3-5-6 DNS,DNS
45 Olympia High School Varsity 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Stripes 4-5-6
46 Bainbridge High School Gold 1-3-5 def. Olympia High School JV 2-4-6
47 Central Kitsap High School Cougars def. Bainbridge High School Blue
48 Gig Harbor High School Tides def. Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright
49 Kingston High School Varsity def. St. Mary's - OR Blues
50 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Capital High School Capital
51 Klahowya Secondary School Eagles def. Bainbridge High School Stripes
52 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks def. Bainbridge High School Gold
53 Bainbridge High School Blue 2-3-5 def. Olympia High School Varsity 1-4-6
54 Olympia High School JV def. Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright
55 Central Kitsap High School Cougars def. St. Mary's - OR Blues
56 Kingston High School Varsity def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
57 Capital High School Capital def. Bainbridge High School Stripes
58 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Bainbridge High School Gold
59 Klahowya Secondary School Eagles def. Bainbridge High School Blue
60 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks def. Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright
61 St. Mary's - OR Blues 2-3-6 def. Olympia High School Varsity 1-4-5 DSQ
62 Olympia High School JV def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
63 Kingston High School Varsity def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars
64 Bainbridge High School Stripes def. Bainbridge High School Gold
65 Bainbridge High School Blue 1-2-5 def. Capital High School Capital 3-4-6
66 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright
67 Klahowya Secondary School Eagles def. St. Mary's - OR Blues
68 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
69 Olympia High School Varsity def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars
70 Kingston High School Varsity def. Olympia High School JV
71 Bainbridge High School Gold def. Bainbridge High School Blue
72 Bainbridge High School Stripes def. Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright
73 St. Mary's - OR Blues 1-3-4 def. Capital High School Capital 2-5-6
74 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
75 Klahowya Secondary School Eagles def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars
76 Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks def. Olympia High School JV
77 Kingston High School Varsity def. Olympia High School Varsity
78 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-3 def. Bainbridge High School Blue 4-5-6
79 Bainbridge High School Gold def. St. Mary's - OR Blues
80 Bainbridge High School Stripes def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
81 Capital High School Capital def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars
82 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Olympia High School JV
83 Klahowya Secondary School Eagles def. Olympia High School Varsity
84 Kingston High School Varsity def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks
85 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright 1-2-4 def. St. Mary's - OR Blues 3-5-6
86 Bainbridge High School Blue def. Gig Harbor High School Tides
87 Bainbridge High School Gold def. Central Kitsap High School Cougars
88 Bainbridge High School Stripes def. Olympia High School JV
89 Capital High School Capital def. Olympia High School Varsity
90 North Kitsap High School Dogfish def. Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks
91 Kingston High School Varsity def. Klahowya Secondary School Eagles

Conditions — 04/22/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1011.2 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 13.5 kn
Gusts to 34.0 kn
From SSW (204°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine4.9 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1011.2 hPa Rain0.14 in

What this breeze does at Olympia — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Olympia in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olympia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Olympia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →