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Raritan Fleet Series 2

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 8 8
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 13 13
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 16 16
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 29 29
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 32 32
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 33 33
7 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 39 39
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 41 41
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 43 43
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 44 44
11 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 57 57
12 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 1 3 2 1 8 Thomas Quinn '18
Morgan Shung '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 2 4 1 2 13 Mack Totman '19
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 3 1 4 5 16 Margot Murray '17
Natalie Herr '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 7 5 7 6 4 29 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 2 6 6 5 DNF 32 Marisa Marino '17
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 DNS 9 5 3 3 33 Liam Dwyer '17
Caroline Phillips '17
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 6 8 2 10 DNF 39 Kevin Tang '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 9 7 9 9 7 41 Luke Duplessis '20
Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 11 4 8 7 DNF 43 Jillian Torrente '17
Lindsey Stinson '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 10 10 10 8 6 44 Paul Danenberg '19
Gavin Mayes '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 5 DNS DNS DNS DNS 57 William Przedpelski '17
Katharine Srere '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 8 DNS DNS DNS DNS 60 Sophie Lusty '20
Samantha Serabian '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11010101010
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 21212121212
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 366666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 433333
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers1111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41717171717
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 61111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 71313131313

Conditions — 03/21/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From W (272°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover51% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1012.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.27 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →