Raritan Fleet Series4

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 7 7
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 12 12
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 17 17
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 18 18
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 30 30
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 33 33
7 Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes 36 36
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 1 2 1 1 7 Mack Totman '19
Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 3 1 2 2 12 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Morgan Shung '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 3 2 3 4 5 17 Jillian Torrente '17
Gavin Mayes '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 4 4 3 6 18 Sophie Lusty '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 DNS 5 5 5 7 30 Luke Duplessis '20
Matthew Sidorovich '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 DNS DNS DNS 6 3 33 William Przedpelski '17
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes DNS DNS DNS DNS 4 36 Julia Bay '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 144444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 21212121212
Mountain LakesMountain Lakes Mountain Lakes33333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21515151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41313131313
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Jillian Torrente '17 Gavin Mayes '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Luke Duplessis '20 Matthew Sidorovich '20
Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Mountain Lakes Julia Bay '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Mack Totman '19 Leo Briant '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sophie Lusty '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Kelsey Kennedy '18 Morgan Shung '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 William Przedpelski '17

Conditions — 04/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1001.6 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From NE (53°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.1 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1001.6 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.81 ± 0.66)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →