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Raritan Fleet Series6

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 13 13
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 15 15
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 26 26
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 30 30
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 30 30
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 40 40
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 42 42
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 47 47
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 48 48
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 52 52
11 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 57 57
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 13 Margot Murray '17 [1-6]
William Przedpelski '17 [1-3]
Leo Briant '19 [4-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 15 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 5 5 9 2 2 26 Mack Totman '19 [1-6]
Jack Quinn '20 [1-3]
George Tricker '17 [4-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 4 4 7 4 6 5 30 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-6]
Caroline Phillips '17 [1-2]
Sarah Parenti '17 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 10 7 4 2 4 3 30 Patrick Murray '19 [1-2]
Hannah Mercurio '20 [3-6]
Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-2]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 5 9 6 5 8 7 40 Sophie Lusty '20
Liz Colao '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 8 6 10 7 5 6 42 Jillian Torrente '17
Grace Evans '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 7 10 9 6 7 8 47 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-6]
Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-3]
James Mccarron '18 [4-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 6 3 3 DNS DNS DNS 48 Marisa Marino '17
Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 9 11 8 10 10 4 52 Paul Danenberg '19
Zoe Papier '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 11 8 DNS 8 9 9 57 Kevin Tang '19
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1121212121212
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 2888888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 3333333
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 4666666
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers101010101010
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-6] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-3]
James Mccarron '18 [4-6]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Jillian Torrente '17 Grace Evans '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Marisa Marino '17 Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Paul Danenberg '19 Zoe Papier '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Kevin Tang '19 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Margot Murray '17 [1-6] William Przedpelski '17 [1-3]
Leo Briant '19 [4-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Mack Totman '19 [1-6] Jack Quinn '20 [1-3]
George Tricker '17 [4-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Liam Dwyer '17 [1-6] Caroline Phillips '17 [1-2]
Sarah Parenti '17 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Patrick Murray '19 [1-2]
Hannah Mercurio '20 [3-6]		 Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-2]
Mia Chmelar '19 [3-6]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Sophie Lusty '20 Liz Colao '19

Conditions — 04/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1028.0 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1028.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.25 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →