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Raritan Fleet Series8

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 6
2 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 15 15
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 16 16
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 20 20
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 26 26
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 28 28
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 32 32
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 37 37
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 48 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 1 1 1 1 2 6 Margot Murray '17
William Przedpelski '17
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 2 3 3 6 1 15 Marisa Marino '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 5 2 4 2 3 16 Patrick Murray '19
Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 4 2 7 4 20 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 4 7 7 3 5 26 Liam Dwyer '17
Liz Colao '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 7 5 6 4 6 28 Jillian Torrente '17
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 8 6 5 5 8 32 Evan Hybl '19
Leo Briant '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 6 8 8 8 7 37 Gavin Mayes '18
Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 9 9 DNF DNF DNS 48 Paul Danenberg '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 166666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 299999
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 31212121212
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 41010101010

Conditions — 05/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 23.5 kn
From ESE (117°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover75% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.96 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →