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SAISA 2017 North Points #6

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 30 40 70
2 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 48 24 72
3 Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 48 26 74
4 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 34 49 83
5 Wando Wando Wando Warriors 44 49 93
6 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 54 59 113
7 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 56 72 128
8 SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity 59 74 133
9 Richmond Hill High School Richmond Hill High School Varsity 77 57 134
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 3 2 1 1 9 1 1 4 4 30 Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-10]
Karlei Kongsiri '19 [1-6]
Lily Schneider '19 [7-10]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 2 6 6 3 2 3 3 2 2 5 34 Garrett Mergenthaler '19
Jason Perryman '17
Wando Wando Wando Warriors 1 2 5 4 7 2 4 8 5 6 44 Austin Ando '17 [1-10]
Caroline Main '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Austin Googer '17 [7-8]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 6 7 3 6 6 4 6 5 3 2 48 Adam Larson '19 [1-10]
Sammy Damesek '20 [1-2]
Will Dobrowski '19 [3-6]
Jackson Sippe '17 [7-10]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 7 5 4 8 3 1 2 3 7 8 48 Walter Gnann '17 [1-10]
Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Jacob Lawson '18 [5-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 3 8 7 5 4 5 7 7 1 7 54 Scott Harris '18 [1-10]
Bella Cankurtaran '20 [1-6]
Cooper Whitehead '18 [7-10]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 5 4 1 9 8 6 5 9 8 1 56 Matthew Chenard '17 [1-3, 9-10]
Evan Chenard '20 [4-6]
Zac Brown '18 [7-8]
Evan Chenard '20 [1-3]
Chris Hartman '20 [4-6]
Matthew Chenard '17 [7-8]
Zac Brown '18 [9-10]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity 8 1 8 2 9 8 8 6 6 3 59 Sarah Deloach '17
Frances Hart '19
Richmond Hill High School Richmond Hill High School Varsity 9 9 9 7 5 7 9 4 9 9 77 Michael Lane '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Chandler Cunningham '17 [3-4]
Cohen Hughes '19 [1-6]
Elle Jacobsson '19 [7-10]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 5 6 24 Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-10]
Sarah Suber '18 [1-4]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [5-10]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Mustangs 1 3 2 3 3 3 4 1 2 4 26 Kenny Corsig '19 [1-10]
Liz Corsig '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Sammy Damesek '20 [3-4]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 8 8 8 4 1 4 1 3 1 2 40 Heather Kerns '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [3-4]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Heather Kerns '20 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 4 5 5 7 8 6 6 4 3 1 49 Luke Volk '17 [1-6]
Sammy Choufanni '17 [7-10]
Jenna Stephens '18 [1-2]
Sammy Choufanni '17 [3-6]
Luke Volk '17 [7-10]
Wando Wando Wando Warriors 7 6 3 6 4 1 8 5 4 5 49 Jamie Renneker '18 [1-10]
Lauren Creech '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Jack Sutton '18 [5-8]
Richmond Hill High School Richmond Hill High School Varsity 6 7 6 2 6 7 7 6 7 3 57 Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-6, 9-10]
Cade Hughes '18 [7-8]
Cade Hughes '18 [1-2]
Abby Sides '19 [3-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 9 2 4 5 5 5 9 7 6 7 59 Wiley Spignoli '17 [1-10]
Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-4]
Cameron Sechrist '18 [5-10]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 3 4 9 9 9 8 5 8 9 8 72 Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2]
Joe Nash '20 [3-4]
Ben Brown '18 [5-6]
Declan O'Dell '18 [7-10]
Chris Hartman '20 [1-2]
Bobby Missert '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Jacob Thompson '18 [5-6]
Ben Brown '18 [7-8]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity 5 9 7 8 7 9 3 9 8 9 74 Keara Paquette '17 [1-10]
Mccormick Emge '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Kate Sherman '17 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity1133557799
SOA Charleston School of the ArtsSOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity7799224466
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard2244668811
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats3355779922
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs4466881133
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity5577992244
Richmond Hill High SchoolRichmond Hill High School Varsity6688113355
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers8811335577
WandoWando Wando Warriors9922446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity2244668811
SOA Charleston School of the ArtsSOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity8811335577
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard3355779922
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats4466881133
Myers Park High SchoolMyers Park High School Mustangs5577992244
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity6688113355
Richmond Hill High SchoolRichmond Hill High School Varsity7799224466
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers9922446688
WandoWando Wando Warriors1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Walter Gnann '17 [1-10] Austin (A.J.) Myers '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Jacob Lawson '18 [5-6]
Varsity Alex Mazzeo '18 [1-10] Sarah Suber '18 [1-4]
Chris Hoogenboom '18 [5-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Scott Harris '18 [1-10] Bella Cankurtaran '20 [1-6]
Cooper Whitehead '18 [7-10]
Hoggard Wiley Spignoli '17 [1-10] Cooper Whitehead '18 [1-4]
Cameron Sechrist '18 [5-10]
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Matthew Chenard '17 [1-3, 9-10]
Evan Chenard '20 [4-6]
Zac Brown '18 [7-8]		 Evan Chenard '20 [1-3]
Chris Hartman '20 [4-6]
Matthew Chenard '17 [7-8]
Zac Brown '18 [9-10]
Wildcats Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2]
Joe Nash '20 [3-4]
Ben Brown '18 [5-6]
Declan O'Dell '18 [7-10]		 Chris Hartman '20 [1-2]
Bobby Missert '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Jacob Thompson '18 [5-6]
Ben Brown '18 [7-8]
Myers Park High School Myers Park High School Adam Larson '19 [1-10] Sammy Damesek '20 [1-2]
Will Dobrowski '19 [3-6]
Jackson Sippe '17 [7-10]
Mustangs Kenny Corsig '19 [1-10] Liz Corsig '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Sammy Damesek '20 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Garrett Mergenthaler '19 Jason Perryman '17
Varsity Luke Volk '17 [1-6]
Sammy Choufanni '17 [7-10]		 Jenna Stephens '18 [1-2]
Sammy Choufanni '17 [3-6]
Luke Volk '17 [7-10]
Richmond Hill High School Richmond Hill High School Michael Lane '17 [1-2, 5-10]
Chandler Cunningham '17 [3-4]		 Cohen Hughes '19 [1-6]
Elle Jacobsson '19 [7-10]
Varsity Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-6, 9-10]
Cade Hughes '18 [7-8]		 Cade Hughes '18 [1-2]
Abby Sides '19 [3-10]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Charleston School of the Arts Sarah Deloach '17 Frances Hart '19
SOA Varsity Keara Paquette '17 [1-10] Mccormick Emge '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Kate Sherman '17 [5-6]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Kyle Dochoda '17 [1-10] Karlei Kongsiri '19 [1-6]
Lily Schneider '19 [7-10]
Chargers Heather Kerns '20 [1-2, 5-10]
Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [3-4]		 Elizabeth Shanahan '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Heather Kerns '20 [3-4]
Wando Wando Austin Ando '17 [1-10] Caroline Main '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Austin Googer '17 [7-8]
Wando Warriors Jamie Renneker '18 [1-10] Lauren Creech '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Jack Sutton '18 [5-8]

Conditions — 03/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1016.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.6 kn
avg  ·  max 11.5 kn
Gusts to 25.1 kn
From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine6.7 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1016.7 hPa Rain0.13 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn · N 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pine Lake Prep: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.16 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine Lake Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Pine Lake Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →