SAISA Girls Championships

HostJacksonville University
Date03/11/2017
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatZ420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	39	39
2	Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	47	47
3	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	50	50
4	Dunedin High School	Varsity	52	52
5	Westminster Christian School	Warriors	53	53
6	SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	56	56
7	The Walker School	Wolverines	65	65
8	Wando High School	Wando Warriors	94	94
9	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	107	107
10	Richmond Hill Sailing	Varsity	109	109
11	Beaufort High School	Varsity	131	131
12	Glynn Academy	Varsity	138	138
13	St. Vincent's Academy	Saints Varsity	173 MRP	173 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT	Sailors
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	3	3	1	2	1	7	1	3	6	1	7	2	2	39	Heather Kerns '20 Elizabeth Shanahan '19
Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	2	1	3	1	3	8	6	4	5	3	BYE	BYE	3	47	Ella Marsden '20 Ethan Osborne '19
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	1	2	6	4	4	1	7	5	BYE	BYE	1	4	7	50	Emily Bornarth '20 [1-13] Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4] Emma Barska '19 [7-8]
Dunedin High School	Varsity	4	6	BYE	BYE	7	3	3	6	1	2	4	3	5	52	Lauren Sokolowski '18 Aine Porter '19
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	BYE	BYE	4	3	2	2	2	7	3	4	5	7	6	53	Olivia De Olazarra '18 Natalia Gagliano '19
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	5	5	2	7	5	5	8	1	2	5	2	5	BYE	56	Sarah Deloach '17 Keara Paquette '17
The Walker School	Wolverines	7	7	5	5	BYE	BYE	4	8	4	7	6	1	1	65	Carlyn Blauvelt '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Evie Blauvelt '21 [3-6, 9-10, 13] Erika Kaczynski '20 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Grayson Berrier '21 [3-6, 13] Katrin Surkan '21 [9-10]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	6	4	7	6	6	9	10	9	7	9	3	8	10	94	Sydney Register '18 [1-13] Emily Roudebush '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Addison Terry '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	8	8	9	9	8	10	9	2	12	10	8	10	4	107	Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 9-10] Megan Fetterley '19 [3-8, 13] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [11-12] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [1-4, 9-10] Camdyn Williams '21 [5-6, 11-13] Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
Richmond Hill Sailing	Varsity	9	10	8	8	9	4	11	10	9	6	10	6	9	109	Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-13] Sadie Ingram '17 [1-2, 13] Reagan Taylor '17 [3-4, 11-12] Sarah Cunningham '20 [5-6] Elle Jacobsson '19 [7-10]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	10	9	10	10	10	6	DNS	DNS	11	8	12	9	8	131	Sarah Suber '18 [1-13] Olivia Vyge '17 [1-4, 11-13] Robin Bridgers '17 [5-6, 9-10] No Show [7-8]
Glynn Academy	Varsity	11	11	11	11	DNF	DNS	5	11	8	11	9	11	11	138	Sarah Weese '20 Brooke Zell '20
St. Vincent's Academy	Saints Varsity	DNF	12	12	12	11	11	BYE	BYE	10	12	11	12	12	173 MRP	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.070+0.07

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A
Beaufort High School Varsity	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7
SOA Charleston School of the Arts SOA Varsity	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Coral Shores High School Hurricanes	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6			8
Dunedin High School Varsity	3	3			5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9
Glynn Academy Varsity	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10
James Island Charter High School Varsity	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11
Richmond Hill Sailing Varsity	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	7	7	1
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12			1	1	2
St. Vincent's Academy Saints Varsity	10	10	4	4	12	12			1	1	2	2	3
The Walker School Wolverines	11	11	12	12			1	1	2	2	3	3	4
Wando High School Wando Warriors	12	12	11	11	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5
Westminster Christian School Warriors			1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Beaufort High School	Varsity	Sarah Suber '18 [1-13]	Olivia Vyge '17 [1-4, 11-13] Robin Bridgers '17 [5-6, 9-10] No Show [7-8]
Coral Shores High School	Hurricanes	Ella Marsden '20	Ethan Osborne '19
Dunedin High School	Varsity	Lauren Sokolowski '18	Aine Porter '19
Glynn Academy	Varsity	Sarah Weese '20	Brooke Zell '20
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	Britton Durst '19 [1-2, 9-10] Megan Fetterley '19 [3-8, 13] Lindsey Hanckel '17 [11-12]	Lindsey Hanckel '17 [1-4, 9-10] Camdyn Williams '21 [5-6, 11-13] Britton Durst '19 [7-8]
Richmond Hill Sailing	Varsity	Elizabeth Tompkins '17 [1-13]	Sadie Ingram '17 [1-2, 13] Reagan Taylor '17 [3-4, 11-12] Sarah Cunningham '20 [5-6] Elle Jacobsson '19 [7-10]
SOA Charleston School of the Arts	SOA Varsity	Sarah Deloach '17	Keara Paquette '17
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	Heather Kerns '20	Elizabeth Shanahan '19
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	Emily Bornarth '20 [1-13]	Kathryn Bornarth '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-13] Yazmeen Simpson '19 [3-4] Emma Barska '19 [7-8]
St. Vincent's Academy	Saints Varsity	No Show	No Show
The Walker School	Wolverines	Carlyn Blauvelt '19 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Evie Blauvelt '21 [3-6, 9-10, 13]	Erika Kaczynski '20 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12] Grayson Berrier '21 [3-6, 13] Katrin Surkan '21 [9-10]
Wando High School	Wando Warriors	Sydney Register '18 [1-13]	Emily Roudebush '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Addison Terry '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-13]
Westminster Christian School	Warriors	Olivia De Olazarra '18	Natalia Gagliano '19

Conditions — 03/11/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 55% · Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

67°F

↑ 70°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 25.3 kn

From ENE (56°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1022.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Jacksonville University: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville University by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Jacksonville University, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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