VISA JV Fleet Race Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 8 8
2 York High School York High School Varsity 14 14
3 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 15 15
4 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 21 21
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 23 23
6 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 24 24
7 Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 35 35
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1 4 1 1 1 8 Kyle Pfrang '22
Maddy Reynolds '21
York High School York High School Varsity 2 1 4 3 4 14 Ethan White '21 [1-5]
Elias Rooker '23 [1-2]
Hunter Bryson '22 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 3 5 2 2 3 15 Caleb Mccrillis '21
Chloe Cowan '22
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 4 3 6 6 2 21 Paul Trudell '22
Will Moore '20
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 5 6 3 4 5 23 Charlotte Patterson '20
Ashlyn Wise '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 6 2 5 5 6 24 David Hanna '21
Gabriel Bugbee '18
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity 7 7 7 7 7 35 Christopher Raab '20 [1-5]
Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Grafton High SchoolGrafton High School Varsity11111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 122222
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 233333
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints44444
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 155555
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 266666
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity77777
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Grafton High School Grafton High School Varsity Christopher Raab '20 [1-5] Lenore Dougherty '20 [1-2]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-5]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 Paul Trudell '22 Will Moore '20
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 Caleb Mccrillis '21 Chloe Cowan '22
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Maddy Reynolds '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 Charlotte Patterson '20 Ashlyn Wise '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 David Hanna '21 Gabriel Bugbee '18
York High School York High School Varsity Ethan White '21 [1-5] Elias Rooker '23 [1-2]
Hunter Bryson '22 [3-5]

Conditions — 05/06/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 997.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.3 kn
avg  ·  max 14.2 kn
Gusts to 32.7 kn
From WSW (245°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine8.7 hrs Humidity63% Pressure997.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →