VISA NSA JV Fleet Race Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 7 7
2 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 20 20
3 York High School York High School Varsity 28 28
4 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 31 31
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 32 32
6 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 48 48
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 Caleb Mccrillis '21 [1-7]
Will Moore '20 [1-4]
Chloe Cowan '22 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 3 2 2 DNF 2 2 2 20 Robert Chase '22
Jackson Walsh '20
York High School York High School Varsity 2 3 5 2 4 DNF 5 28 Ethan White '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4, 7]
Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4, 7]
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 5 DNF 3 3 3 DNF 3 31 Emmaline Dicarlo '20
David Hanna '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 4 4 4 4 5 DNF 4 32 Charlotte Patterson '20
Kalia Haupt '19
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 6 48 Jack Butler '23
Elise Coberly '17
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.210+0.21
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 11111111
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores 22222222
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints3333333
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 14444444
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 25555555
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity6666666
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 1 Caleb Mccrillis '21 [1-7] Will Moore '20 [1-4]
Chloe Cowan '22 [5-7]
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 Robert Chase '22 Jackson Walsh '20
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Jack Butler '23 Elise Coberly '17
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 Emmaline Dicarlo '20 David Hanna '21
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 Charlotte Patterson '20 Kalia Haupt '19
York High School York High School Varsity Ethan White '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [3-4, 7]
Hunter Bryson '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Elias Rooker '23 [3-4, 7]

Conditions — 03/25/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1023.0 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.9 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 24.5 kn
From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1023.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.52 ± 0.54)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →