VISA Poquoson Fleet Race JV Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 12 12
2 Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 14 14
3 York High School York High School Varsity 1 26 26
4 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 35 35
5 Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 40 40
6 York High School York High School Varsity 2 41 41
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 12 Kyle Pfrang '22
Jack Butler '23
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 14 Paul Trudell '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-4]
Jackson Walsh '20 [1-2, 5-8]
York High School York High School Varsity 1 3 5 4 2 3 3 3 3 26 Madeline Amthor '22
Elias Rooker '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 4 4 5 3 4 4 5 6 35 Charlotte Patterson '20
Kalia Haupt '19
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 5 3 6 5 5 5 6 5 40 David Hanna '21
Gabriel Bugbee '18
York High School York High School Varsity 2 6 6 3 6 6 6 4 4 41 Ethan White '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Christopher Raab '20 [5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2]
Hunter Bryson '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Ethan White '21 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (29 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Maury High SchoolMaury High School Commodores22222222
Nansemond-Suffolk AcademyNansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints33333333
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 144444444
Poquoson High SchoolPoquoson High School Islanders 277777777
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 155555555
York High SchoolYork High School Varsity 266666666
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Maury High School Maury High School Commodores Paul Trudell '22 [1-2, 5-8]
Caleb Mccrillis '21 [3-4]
Jackson Walsh '20 [1-2, 5-8]
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Nansemond-Suffolk Academy Saints Kyle Pfrang '22 Jack Butler '23
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 1 David Hanna '21 Gabriel Bugbee '18
Poquoson High School Poquoson High School Islanders 2 Charlotte Patterson '20 Kalia Haupt '19
York High School York High School Varsity 1 Madeline Amthor '22 Elias Rooker '23
York High School York High School Varsity 2 Ethan White '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Christopher Raab '20 [5-6]
Christopher Raab '20 [1-2]
Hunter Bryson '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Ethan White '21 [5-6]

Conditions — 04/29/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 87°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.4 kn
avg  ·  max 14.9 kn
Gusts to 26.0 kn
From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.34 ± 0.29)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →